4 weeks to election, are these polls really right? In 2016 I remember Hillary being 12 points ahead

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Hillary was not 12 points ahead 4 weeks out.

Also, Hillary did have 3m more votes let's not forget that.

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The absolute conspiracy theories the right loves to parrot is embarrassing. Final polls were Hilary by 3pts and 70% chance of winning.

Donald winning when he had a 1/3rd chance isn't some grand conspiracy about how polling works, it's just how odds work.

smart

I’m not voting for Trump but I think he’s going to win fairly easily. Not because of him, but because the whole country is moving to the right. Especially young men, who were liberal in prior years, but now are breaking to the right. Also, more black and Hispanic voters, more union members, and the list goes on. The Democrats are doing better with women across the board, but I don’t think it’s nearly enough. The other factor is Twitter/X which is using its algorithm to pull people to the right instead of the left. Elon is going to have more influence than people realize.

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X vs the entire corporate media and all tech companies lol?

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I vote for trump but I’d never admit it in front of others, scared of being judged and lectured (I’m brown and legal immigrant citizen)

likefunnyupliftinghelpful

A makeshift website your little brother built, cute

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We really don’t know and it really is a toss up at this point. While people are rightfully embarrassed to admit it voting for Trump, as they were in 2020, he has lost a lot of the middle since then.

So

Last time the left didn’t take him seriously and the middle took a chance.

This time the left takes him very seriously and much middle won’t vote for him.

But it’s impossible to predict the impact of the qualitative factors and the quantitative data is too close to point one way or another.

Betting sites give Harris a slight edge.

likefunnysmart

Your hero

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Praying Trump wins. The country can’t take this do nothing for us politics 4 more years.

likefunnyuplifting

1. No new wars 2. Controlled immigration 3. Tariffs on countries to bring money into the states 4. Bankrupted corrupt countries that funded terrorist 5. Lowered taxes 6. HBCU funding

funny

I wish our election cycle was like some other European countries. Candidates get 3 months max to pitch their citizens. Done.

likesmart

I wish it was more like the British monarch, except give him full power and dissolve the parliament

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In 2016 Trump's poll numbers were understated because people didn't want to admit they were voting for Trump.

This is also likely true in 2024.

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I’d be afraid to say I didn’t vote for Trump. His people are more likely to get hostile.

Popular polls are irrelevant. Donald Trump is marginally ahead on polymarket. The trend seems to be in Trump's favor. Swing states seem to be tied. However, a lot of the polls can misjudge the likely voters because they all have tricks to try to predict who will come out and vote. I personally believe the Trump voters are under present in the swing state polls. I think Trump voters are less likely to participate in the polling.

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Who is even responding to these ‘polls’?

I have never once heard of someone being contacted to participate.

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I feel like the pollsters are underemployed young adults with a very green outlook talking to people between 9am and 5pm

This time Presudent Trump must win again. Latina for Trump!

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Trump will win and it won’t be close.

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VP? Is that you Kamala?!

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I’ll vote for the candidate who has a stricter immigration policy. If you’re going to be depending on government services, you should not be able to enter this country.

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NC may go heavily right due to recent events which for him is a big state to get

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Yeah, outside of CLT and Wake County the state is all red

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You are the cyber security expert, you tell us how much foreign countries are influencing the elections?

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Very little of your response is in contradiction to what I said. I think what you may not be understand that just because a nation today calls itself “Israel” it doesn’t make it the same thing that is referred to in Genesis 12. Your description of the ethnic origins of Jewish people is irrelevant.

How do you deal with the fact that John the Baptist told the Pharisees they’re not the decedents of Abraham when by your literal ethnic definition they were?

God promised Abraham that he would bless all nations through his offspring - and that offspring was Christ. Through Christ all that have faith are a part of God’s covenant with Abraham.

Cornelius was Abraham’s offspring and through faith was/is a part of the blessings to Israel. The Pharisees who lacked faith were not.

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Polls are point - in - time estimates with very large (often overlapping CIs). It doesn't mean anything.

From 2016 I learned to never put my confidence in any pole. The only thing that matters is what the election results are and what unfortunately, the electoral votes are. That system needs to be gotten rid of.

Electoral college was developed when the US was a collection of member states that more closely resembled the current EU. With federal power consolidation, and homogenization of states due to technology, it’s an outdated appendage that decreases the people’s power. It remains because changing it would change the balance of power.

In just not sure South Dakota brings enough to the table.

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Your memory is wrong. Polls had Hilary up by about 3 points and a 70% chance of winning.

No need to create another conspiracy theory like the right loves so much

70% chance…

Just remember if Kamala wins and she can't fulfill her duties who will be your president! That weird guy from Minnesota

But eyeliner wearing couch fúcker, 🤌

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