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Coach
Interest rates on primaries drop below 6 but stay above 5.5. Housing prices increase modestly nationally. Sales see a slight uptick due to decrease in rates but still lower than 2020 - 2022.
Doom and gloom news headlines will continue about lawsuits, real estate prices, and agents leaving the business. NAR will become a household word. Meanwhile, agent churn will continue as usual.
Home prices will continue to rise, regardless of interest rates, because inventory continues to lag way behind demand.
People who buy a home in 2024 will be glad they did.
Coach
Tax incentives for builders. We need to build at pre 08 numbers.
Coach
Like we saw in 2020-2023, I think that we’ll see a round of hot cities where jobs are stronger. We’ll see an exodus of the sun belt in places like Florida where jobs are weak, remote jobs dry up. That will cause some migration. We could see hot areas that have been cold for awhile like PNW. I think rates will be flat until unemployment starts spiking in 2024 6ish%. I don’t think housing will crash across the board but I think it’s all about job opportunities. People will move if they can’t make a living. I think the market will become neutral, especially in the south and expensive areas like California. Many people will choose to rent to reduce risk and uncertainty of a long term commitment. There will be some deals in lower demand areas when you get a combination of seasonality, weak job markets, people offloading second homes, weaker short term rentals. I don’t think there will be a buying frenzy in 2024, even if rates drop to 5%.
End Q2 2024: corporate leases will start to unravel as term maturity primarily results in no re-signing/extensions.
Causes: WFH, urban center exodus, high rates.
Missing Tax revenues formerly enjoyed are gonna show as less fund for state and local governments.
Housing won’t crack much with the demand to live outside said tax ridden city centers will keep suburbia alive.
If the landing is harder than soft, we’ll see job loss as employers and govs reassess costs structures to address the missing tax revenues.