I guess is a frequent question now, but as a first time home buyer should I buy now or wait until the fed drops the rates?

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I wanted to buy in 2019everyone told me prices were way too high and wait… 2020waiting and they go higher, I was still told wait they will come down. 2021 prices went up again and I panicked and bought. Everyone told me I should have waited. Now my house is already worth 75k more than I bought it and rates have doubled.
I should never have waited and thank god I didn’t wait longer. If you can afford to buy now, do it. You can always refi later.

likesmart

If rates drop, prices will rise. Buy a house when you néed a house.

likesmart

Yup. End thread here this is the right answer

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That happened in 2021, but the correlation in interest rates to home prices is much weaker than you’d expect. So if you dig a little deeper look at 50+ years the correlation is all over the place. Economics is unfortunately extremely complex. 2008-2012 home prices and interest rates were dropping. The economy was not healthy, high unemployment, tight lending, we went from a booming housing market (like now) to a flood of inventory. To replicate 2021 you need a booming economy and the greatest money printing in U.S. history. 2001ish dot com boom real estate just kinda went neutral, not a buyer or sellers market. In my market 2024 resembles 2001 the most. It made a lot of sense to rent in that market, but we never did get a correction in prices. I wouldn’t make a concrete assumption it will play out like any previous market. Evaluate deals on their merits. Over long time frames historically everyone wins. Right now you have seasonality, a much slower real estate market, and no data to justify a rate cut. I expect 2024 to be a neutral market.

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Buy now and refinance

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Good idea but keep in mind it will cost several thousand dollars to refinance. When I refinanced it cost me $7k, it would have cost 12k but luckily I was able to transfer some of the tax money from the original loan to the new loan.

helpful

I actually do think we’re hitting the tail end of the growth, i’ve been looking at homes and the monthly mortgage payments are insane.

If your mandate is maximum employment with pricing stability. 216,000 jobs added, neutral housing market, fed gets an A+. We also know he’s data driven. He’s not gonna budge on rates with that data. I think he’ll sit right here until the data suggests otherwise.

Don‘t bet on appreciation. If you find a good deal (without assuming appreciation) and can afford it do it. If not, keep monitoring

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