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Yep, it’s kind of a gamble but if you have assessed the risk and the breakeven you can go with it. The only other thing to factor in is the mortgage cost as you might have to pay again when you refinance.
In my scenario, i went with 15-yr fixed and paid 1.5 points to lock 4.375% (0.75% lower than the market rate) and the breakeven period was 3 years. I’m 1.25 years in.
Maybe this isn’t a popular opinion, but refinancing isn’t free. And if you can get a seller concession on a buy down, you should be able to just get cash credits upfront from them instead.
Recommend avoiding complex schemes with your lender. Just take whatever the going rate is and refinance if and when it becomes financially advantageous, if you’re planning to stay in your house long term.
A lot of buyers are getting seller concessions for 3-2-1 rate buy downs. Your mortgage professional can run the numbers for you on break even. They might not offer to, but will if you ask them.
My opinion is, rates will not go down that fast. So you will likely be paying this loan for at least 3 years before rates will even be at a favorable level to allow you to offset refinance costs + save.