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Chamath was right about Bitcoin so I’m holding tight on this one. Still so much to look forward to with new factories, cyber truck delivery, battery updates, etc.
Those are all solid points, even if I think the Cyber Truck is ugly AF and hate that the only color choice will be that sheet metal.
I feel like the rest are givens - investors expect continued scale, increasing deliveries, etc. That’s a fairly basic assumption of any growth oriented company so that all has to be baked in to the current 840B valuation.
The only variables I see left are:
1. Tesla roof/power wall and ability to scale and incorporate it in to new construction. Convincing people to spend 50K or more to replace their roof that’s supposed to last 30+ years is a tall ask and electricity in general isn’t that expensive
2. Tesla solar/power wall solution for commercial/industrial applications (office buildings, etc.)
3. Continued exponential improvements in battery tech that Tesla can then license to other car manufacturers, commercial/industrial applications, utilities for DER, etc. They currently only do this on a limited scale I believe.
4. A “Maintenance as a Service” model to provide maintenance, repairs, etc. to customer segments described above
5. Demonstrate their ability to successfully refresh product lines. The S and X are long in the tooth. They’re also not particularly “luxurious” on the inside, the screens and controls are dated and the general fit/finish aren’t that great (we own a 3, have driven multiple X/S loaners so have first hand experience). If they want gen pop to spend 80K+ for an SUV or Sedan, fit and finish at a minimum need to be improved or they’ll never attract the German car buyers
6. Figured out how to deliver a sedan/crossover for 30K to pick up the market that can’t spend 50K+
7. Decide whether the “Tesla Taxi” vision is viable through a self driving fleet of Tesla’s that leverage an Uber-like ecosystem.
I’m also surprised that they haven’t attempted to go after the low hanging fruit in terms of light commercial EVs, think UPS/FedEx/Amazon delivery vehicles, and other small biz that use similar light duty vans etc. where a 300 mile range is plenty to get through a shift.
That’s what I thought at $200.
If it’s a huge position you should diversify. If it’s a trading position find a price below here you’re willing to sell at and do so if it falls to that point. Maybe set a stop loss or trailing stop.
Don’t bail just because you made money. Let it run (again unless it’s a huge position for you).
It’s trading as if it’s already executed it’s vision. I don’t really see the upside at this valuation.
This is where my heads at... 880/share is 4400/share pre split. I see Tesla being a behemoth if they can execute on Tesla roof, walls, etc. and create a true distributed energy ecosystem.
EV cars and self driving tech will soon be old news as new contenders inevitably enter the market. It’s about building the Apple-like ecosystem for energy that would be the true game changer.
That being said, long road ahead to deliver that vision and we’re already saying it’s an 840B company.
Love the concepts, just not sure how much upside is left from here
Self half keep half
Correct
Chief
Who knows? I wouldn’t be heavy in it, but I have been wrong before.