We're closing a new construction house and shopping for a loan. We have 2 options. Curious to know what would you do?

Opt1: Rate 7.5% with no points buy down. Closing cost 9k (after $25k seller credits)

Opt 2: Rate 6.99% with 12K point cost. Closing cost 21k (including points and $25k credits).

i know the math is if we decide to go with 7.5%, we need to refi within ~33 mos to a rate that's lower than 6.99%. that's assuming the rate will go down. but i'm unclear how much the refi would cost.

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Average cost to refinance is 2-6% of the loan value. Most lenders also want you to have minimum 20% equity to refinance, which if you’re putting 20% down now is not a problem, but may be an issue if you’re only putting 3.5-5% down.

Personally, I see rates staying pretty level for the next 2 years, but will likely drop after elections. Especially if a new party is elected, they’d be looking to encourage the fed to give the economy a warm and fuzzy boost with some lower rates. That being said, I’m not sure how much lower they would go. I think 6.5% is likely, 6% is probably reasonable. I think 5.5% will be closer to the “new normal” at least for a while, but I don’t think we’ll get there in the next 33 months.

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I used to have good advice on this, but with everything in such flux it’s harder

My old advice was to absolutely purchase the points. If you’re there for a long time or if rates keep going up, this will pay dividends over and over and over

I’ll say that I find it unlikely that rates will drop so far over 3 years that it’ll be worth refinancing. We’d have to go through a pretty bad economic sht storm to see that happen, and the economy is currently so robust that they’ve had to raise interest rates to this level

Also, there is a chance todays rates will be the new normal, or worse, they go up. I have no idea if that’s true but there is a significant non-zero chance. In that case, you’ll have wished you bought the points down

All in all, if I were you in the situation, I would hedge my bets by buying points down

solid advice, thank you!

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