26M here looking into a micro-buyout opportunity in the Digital Asset Management SaaS space (library document management).

The buyout is projecting 8.9x cash on cash returns and IRR of ~53%. Entry valuation $5M (3.2x ARR), expected exit valuation $24.8M (5x ARR). Currently 38% ebitda margin, forecasted 55% in exit year - 5 year holding period

The minimum is $50k. Is it dumb to spin up an SPV with a few friends to invest in this? I know the GP of the acquiring firm.

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Posting as :
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If someone says you're going to make 9x your money, you're probably going to make zero.

Either this is the best investment ever (could be) or the person you're investing with thinks you're an idiot.

likehelpful

If you have money to spare and are comfortable losing it, then I would do it. I enjoy taking risk too. just know before hand that theses things often don't go as planned.

Honestly I would run. Anyone underwriting to a 9x is wildly optimistic - private markets are highly competitive these days so counting on this type of return is insane. Also, if they truly had this good of an opp they would raise retail money which is time consuming and expensive

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If you’re absolutely confident in those returns wouldn’t you be dumb not to.. I guess this is more a question to you on how confident you are in those assumptions

I’m skeptical of their “operating playbook”. The guy has previously sold 2 saas companies, but idk how anyone can project that cash on cash

Numbers looks good! For how long the company is in the businesses? How confident are u that the number will grow to 55%? Let me know if u r looking for investors.

Why are they letting you in on the deal? If this is some acquaintance desperately looking for dumb money I’d run the other direction.

If this is a known friend, coworker, etc. that has a reputation and you trust them I would definitely get in

I was introduced to the founder of the $30m fund through another friend. I was going to potentially become an LP but didn’t want $30k locked up for a while

Have you done a private deal before? What’s the rest of your portfolio like?

I’m also mid 20s, just did my first deal a couple months ago. Went in in later rounds but early backers are well known billionaires in tech & hedge fund space, also through personal connection. Advice I receive is if your portfolio is under $1M, should probably invest no more than 5% in private equity. You said above that you didn’t want $30k locked up for a while, how much would you be comfortable to have locked up with this deal? Also the projected cash on cash returns is a little wild, any benchmarks against other deals in that same space?

I disagree BR1 - I think it’s fine to have a significant portion of your portfolio locked up in PE but it can’t be in 1 deal or similar deals. If you invest 5% in a SaaS company in Cali and another 5% in a trucking company in Canada you’re fine from a diversification standpoint.

Who is making these projections? The company or the people leading the investment?

If the investors are just showing you management’s model with no haircut run the other way, fast.

Also, with the size of this company it’s likely tough to make real projections even as an investor.

Growth drivers boiled down to:
- redoing pricing to become usage based, not per seat
- design refresh
- automation tools to cut some employees like back office

It's not unheard of to see these types of projections and returns for small buyout opportunities - usually, you can squeeze a ton of returns out of professionalization, initial expansion into new product categories / customers / geographies, and operating leverage, which translates not just into EBITDA growth but also multiple expansion. (And the transaction structure may be really favorable in that it minimizes equity). That said - do your own diligence on the asset and make sure you feel comfortable with the underlying business model and trends. Ask for the model and stress test some scenarios where growth isn't as robust and you don't get the kind of operating leverage you're looking for. See if the risk / return profile is still attractive enough given the higher-than-usual probability of a zero or negative investment.

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