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Can you drink protein powder everyday ?
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I’m struggling to find areas of growth. The bike and treadmill are great, and saw big growth during the pandemic. But what do they offer that a cheaper bike doesn’t? Even the classes are great, but now with gyms open, plus apple and other fitness apps offering classes, people are opting for human interaction and/or cheaper options.
I think the biggest indicator is the amount of people selling their pelotons on Facebook. Seeing lower numbers in a lot of the classes I’ve been taking, too.
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Well FWIW Cathie is bullish. What does an iPhone offer that android doesn’t, what does Tesla offer that other auto manufacturers don’t? Prestige brand value and a cultish fan base, plus Pton is inking tons of partnerships and the precor acquisition will put them everywhere. Plus they’re expanding into gaming and metaverse and the network effect is a major differentiator.
I tend to agree with Cathie that peloton ushered in digital home fitness and it’s a disruption here to stay - obviously there’s bear cases that were always gonna come out when lockdowns ended. Market does need to assess value without lockdowns pushing things higher.
But saying Pton is done here is a little silly and short sighted IMO.
PTON is the future of fitness. If you can’t see the vision that’s fine. If you see the prophecy put your money down and watch it grow. We can’t all be visionary’s 🥱
Yup. PTON management does not care about the stock price right now. They are looking into the future to invest and build out the brand. Not sure if you workout but if you do, you can easily tell how far superior PTON is compared to the competitors. Also if their clothing line starts catching fire, they will be like Lulu but better IMO.
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Here is a Fastly chart. The red circle could be you catching a falling knife. It's nowhere near ATH and it continued to drop after it's bad ER
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Fair enough. I'm ST focused, so I agree we have different views/biases. I hope you picks perform well.
Pick up PTON once it gets to the 30s, now now. For the near term, I’d suggest ABNB and Expedia.
Anchoring bias
Any reason to believe they'll achieve those pandemic growth numbers? Don't think so.
Sounds more like hope. Based on the latest ER, they trimmed their guidance with added uncertainty from the supply chain. Multiple analysts have halved their PT. No reason to buy until we see the stock level off.
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And what if they don't get back to ATH or even close?
The three you just mentioned boomed off the stay at home environment. Now that the country has emerged from working remote and people slowly trickle back to offices, there is less need for a zoom call or you don't have time to ride a Peloton.
There and fundamental and logical reasons these 3 have been giving back their gains. This is more than a technical pullback that something like Tesla had earlier this year. These stocks are being dumped by big money because they are no longer investable at these levels.
I'm not saying they can't go back up, because anything can happen, but Fastly is a perfect example of why you should buy something in the hopes it will reclaim all time high
Pro
Market got irrational on the way up - it was always going to get irrational on the way down. Pton is fundamentally more valuable than it was before lockdowns (i think around $30). Things will take time to sort themselves out and address it’s true value.
If youre willing to wait, your gains with Pton over the next few years may well outpace many other hot stocks right now IMO. If you’re playing a short term game then obviously there’s better things to buy.
One of the few threads here on FB where everyone is right. Just saying different things
Pro
Short term bad, long term good is my position. Not really sure what others are arguing. Short term bad long term bad?
Don't try to catch a falling knife.
Pro
SSA1 - well it was around $25 before lockdowns. So, my thesis is that it’s worth at least double that now, after 1.5 years of increased brand recognition and bikes sold.
Everything else around macro and PEG are short term issues. This gets into what it means to hold vs chase. Not many folks were saying to buy crypto in 2019. How many folks sneered at tesla for all of last year / will be saying similar things if it drops to 1/3 of current value? Everyone including institutions piled into Nikola, zoom, and others at various times last year.
I just think in today’s environment, the narrative and story follows the price movements, and not the other way around. Things a year ago could not have been sunnier for Fastly.
PTON is dumb af and foley doesn’t understand haas. Building the hardware is baseline bs. Improving this software is what keeps arr. But, sure, let’s come out with clothes.
It’s a gamble until they get new management or pull heads out of asses.
Wow, I'm late to this (shockingly wholesome) thread. Question to the void: is PTON really as culty as Apple and Tesla? I recognize the following, but Peleton products are much less necessary than phones (Apple) or cars (Tesla).
PTON is a great buy at these prices. It’s the future. Most people commenting here probably don’t own it.
Why?
Pro
Not really…the gains weren’t sustainable at end of 2020. I don’t think anyone is arguing many of 2021s meme stocks and shitcoins are sustainable forever either.
Buying low and selling high is the way to play. You think Peloton can’t announce some kind of metaverse crypto gaming partnership and shoot back to all time highs next week? I doubt they will do that, but i think it’s typical herd behavior that everyone who piled in at over $150 earlier this year now thinks they’re done.
It’s like how crypto will likely have a huge spike in the next few months, and new buyers will at first be very happy and then get burned. News cycles and prices and investor emotions go hand in hand.
Thought about it. What are your positions?
I’m thinking about it. Peloton had a good story before the pandemic.
Hi :) can you explain what you’re saying? Sounds like a good investment opportunity but I’m not engulfed enough in this world to translate 100% into action for myself!
Pro
They’re trading at big discounts. If you believe in those companies and their futures, it’s the best time to buy in since early into the pandemic.
IMO, if you’re looking at where things will be on a yearly basis from here, they’re better investments right now than a lot of things out there.
ABNB is to the reopening what PTON was to the lockdown.
Pro
This is interesting. Maybe. It’s market cap is many orders of magnitude higher but i could see it.
LEAP calls?
Bought one 2 years out. Hoping price drops a little further to get another one in. Only risk imo on this play is overall market. PTON in 2 yrs will be back to full force. Brand, technology and vision too strong.