How do we think COVID-19 is going to end?
A. Vaccine is found
B. Testing, social distancing stamps it out
C. We develop herd immunity to it
D. We learn that it’s not as lethal as previously thought

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Will probably end with A but we can’t afford to wait until that happens. Most realistic is B to reopen until A happens.

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It isn’t ever going away, anti-vaxxers will make sure of that. We will learn to manage it as a society by social distancing in the short term, find treatments and therapies in the medium term along with ramping up production of PPE, and vaccines/herd immunity in the long term.

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This. And I think that is pretty much what the experts are saying.

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C. We develop herd immunity to it ✅

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D. We learn that it’s not as lethal as previously thought ✅

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Well the only way we know that’s not asleep though as we previously thought is through extensive testing so doesn’t Option B need to happen before even considering option D?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't social distancing meant to flatten the curve and slow the spread of the virus, not end it completely?

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And being an island.

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Option E) Red states open up too early, blue states remain closed, outbreaks returns and spikes back up, all states closes back up properly, then 2 months later social distancing alleviates the issue

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I know I was kidding

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A. Vaccine is found ✅

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B. Testing and social distancing stamps it out ✅

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Imaginary crystal balls

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I think it’s a combo of these. We’re already starting to find out vía antibody research that the fatality rate of this virus is much lower than previously thought, and also learning about how much larger the scale of it has become and how many people actually have it. So D and C could work together quite nicely. B. I’ll agree to the testing scenario, however the role of social distancing was never to eliminate but rather help reduce the load on hospital systems all at once- people believing we must stay hermits til the end are speaking from an extreme point of privilege and this lifestyle would cause irreparable harm that would far outweigh the benefits especially as we start to consider C. And D. Ultimately A is the goal, however realistically that could take much longer than 18 months and knowing the ultimate success rate of the vaccine could take even longer. I would combine A with an effective treatment

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C or D

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A, definitively. We will be going through periods of lock-downs the next year

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D plus treatments, social distancing from the vulnerable

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None of the above

Combination
1. Not holding my breath. We’re always struggled to crack the code with Corona virii.
2. Some of this. Normal for a long time will be masks and no handshakes but not the current level of social distancing.
3. Yes, as long as we find reinfection rates are very low.
4. Sort of. Even without a vaccine, we can learn to ID early and treat effectively.

E.

A

Even if we find a vaccine to this one, there’ll be another variant in a few years. I feel like a combination of all of these will be needed at varying times. I can pretty much guarantee we’ll all see lockdowns in our lifetime again. Some will be needed, some will turn out to be false alarms. We’ll develop vaccines and diseases will continue to evolve. Over time we’ll get immune to some and killed by others. This is the way life has always been, we’re just more connected and more impacted by it in a hyper mobile world.

I think everyone is eventually going to get it because no one is going to truly stay quarantined this entire time, and there are so many people who have no symptoms who are inadvertently spreading it.
States that have considerably flattened the curve will start loosening restrictions, opening business back up (with conditions), but still require face masks and social distancing. That’s my theory!!

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