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Fasterrrr
The problem with 2008 was there was no solution. No one thing that anyone could do to make everything better. Recovery was slow and painful because the fundentals of the economy was built on top of a rotten foundation of mortgages and mortgage backed securities.
This is different. While a lot of companies took excessive risks with their stock buybacks and dividends, they were profitable. Once a vaccine is created, we should bounce back more quickly. It may take a year or so before an effective vaccine is found, but I'm confident.
Recovery won’t be quick. Firms have to make the call as to cut labor cost in the short run or stick it through to win in the long run. It is still going to be a fight for talent when the dust settles. Let’s see who has a long view on this
... whereas this is expected to be a dump. In theory wouldn’t that mean massive hiring when it’s over? So wouldn’t consulting want to weather it to that moment?
My personal opinion - Once people can go back to work fully we'll quickly see an increased demand for our services (i.e., higher than pre-corona demand) as companies try to make up for lost time, restart initiatives that were put on hold, and attempt to beat their competitors out the gate to turn the situation into an opportunity to create competitive advantages.
Some firms will have knee-jerk reactions based on a shortsighted view of the economy and lay off staff. Others will take a smarter, long-term view, will hunker down and take a loss in the short-term but will be better prepared to mobilize quickly to handle the increased demand during the recovery.
A lot of firms are already oversized - this gives them a change to permanently restructure. My guess is 12 months from now the 1M people employed by the B4 is down 20%.
I think a lot of industries will struggle for a while and, as a result, consulting will too.