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An extra $800 a month is $9,600 per year = another year of not buying a house….

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Powell literally just gave a speech saying the fed is open to raising rates again.

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Make your bets, I’ll make mine

Yes

Thats too low for this year

Nah

Overall, wage growth (at least what they are looking at) and discretionary spending is still too strong for them to say ok we’re done and now let’s lower rates. The effects of the rate hikes still haven’t worked their way far enough through the macro economy for them to reverse course and start lowering rates. There’s a large lag between a hike and it flushing through the market - and we’ve had what, 11 since 3/22? They’re absolutely willing to have a “hard landing” to stop inflation despite all of their talk about a “soft” one, but if they said that openly it’d almost be a self fulfilling prophecy. I hope I’m wrong, but if their “forced” to lower rates by any meaningful amount in 2023 we haven’t landed hard.. we’ve crash landed off the runway.

By the end of 2023? I'd say the probability is as close to 0% as it could be. In the next 12-18 months (in the midst of an election cycle), perhaps.

I personally think rate won’t go lower than 6% until 2025. If they do great, if not oh well, same old same old.

I don’t believe so. I work at a community bank and it’s almost comical how so many bank CFOs keep talking like rates will start to decrease “because history shows us”, even though the economy continues to be resilient to the rate increases. Like seriously…..if economy is strong then rates aren’t going down. I wouldn’t count on many decreases before 2025, and if there are it’s because some other major element popped up forcing feds to tank rates.

Related Posts

Hi fellow fish need some advice.

I'm planning a wedding and wondering if I should apply for new credit cards to maximize on points. If so, wondering what your recommendations are and or if there are new cards out there I haven't heard of yet. For context I probably have another 20k+ in expenses to pay still and my current cards are:

CSP
Marriott Bonvoy Boundless
Citi double cash
Random card (used to be uber)

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Surprised how I have so much money as a 1st year senior. My car is paid off, college debt is paid off, and I'm ready to purchase my first home in Los Angeles. Life's easy!

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Hi, I am new to investing, i am looking for mutual funds where i can have a long term investment. I and ready to invest 10k per month in SIP's split accross multiple funds. Can someone provide me suggestions

Hello, I’m looking for help filing my tax information for a new job. I’ve been in nyc for close to two decades, and am moving from the city for a new job. I’m wondering what to claim.

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How diligent is Mintz background check. When it comes to education? My references, credit, criminal and work experiences will check out. However said I already graduated school when I am in reality a month away from graduating. The company sent over the contract and start date at the same time as the background check.

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What’s the best credit card for points in the UK. I’m from the US and have the Chase Sapphire Reserve and the Marriott Amex

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What will be the inhand for this with proper taxation?

P.s: want to compare with another but fishbowl don't allow to add 2 images
I just shared that too a while ago.

Please help i think the gratuity is extra

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When to sell at a loss?

I’m 26 and have a fair chunk of my NW tied to Cloudflare - a tech stock that I believe has the opportunity to 3x and become a $100b+ company over the long term. Similarly, I have a lot in cloud computing etf - WCLD.

Given short term rotation out of growth stocks, I’m confused on what to do. I think we still have some time before growth stocks bottom out, but do I sell?

I would consider myself a “long only” investor, but am unsure what to do given my lack of diversif

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What is the difference in subscription to notified and subscription to approved mutual funds?

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Im so happy! I just paid off all my debts!

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What is the *prime* amount of money to bring you happiness?

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Whats the second source of income for a IT employee ?

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Let’s finish this up strong! What are your year-end self development plans?!
We have our last session of the year of our group/guest financial education cycles at our Downtown Toronto office this Saturday. We go through our first financial education session that we talk about basic to higher level of financial information; from saving, investing, risks and returns, registered accounts, etc. There is no cost and no obligation. If you are interested to attend in-person or via Zoom, let me know.

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My landlord requested a $100/month increase in rent. I want to push back on that increase, given the uncertainty around corona virus effects. I need to re-sign by April 1st, if I wish to extend. (1/2)

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Can we file separately as a married couple if I have already contributed to the IRA for 2020? IRA guidelines say married filing separately cannot contribute to IRA but well too late lol

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Anyone build a house in NVA? We're planning to move to a bigger house in a couple of years and building is an option if it's not too expensive. Anyone got any builders or $/sq ft info? Thanks!

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If you could right now, would you buy a house in full cash or invest in the market?

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I recently was let go (in lieu of accepting my two weeks) and I should have received my March expense check by the end of April per the employment agreement (submitted the report April 1, let go before mid April). I have emailed HR but haven't heard anything. I've got a feeling someone at the top is putting a hold on it.

How do I get my money from them? It's a few hundred dollars

Sorry if this isn't the right bowl for this question - I've checked a few.

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I am sick of being a realtor! I've been trying for 5 years and have only sold 3 houses. Where I'm from (small Southern town) nobody is buying. Most people's families already own homes and it's just a bummer to see all these nice houses deteriorating over time.

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More Posts

Thoughts on EW MBA from Booth/Kellogg/Haas. Currently SC at Deloitte and want to transition to tier 1 consulting firms

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In case anyone is looking to get into product management, I came across this image which shows some books you could read to get into the role.

P.S: I saw this on Linkedin posted by Dr Milan Milanovic. So all credits to him!

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likehelpfulupliftingsmart

How do I get on a deal team?

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Who wins this trade:
Sony Michel and Joe mixon for Pat mahomes and OBJ

I have cam Newton as a backup to mahomes.

Would you trade away Derrick Henry for Mike Williams? 12 team .5ppr league, really worried about Titans o line and Henry being past his prime at this point…he’s looked terrible the past two games

Where do you keep your non-library original components in Figma? Do you put them to the side outside of a working frame, within its own “Components” page (like Sketch does for Symbols), or do you keep the original directly inside of one of your layouts?

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Has anyone interviewed at Huge ? Just got contacted about a potential role and would love some insight

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Hi Guys,

May I know the best content (books/videos/courses) to get the strong fundamentals and advance knowledge of GCP Cloud and DevOps tools to achieve expertise in DevOps & cloud Architect design.

Pleas don't suggest good basic courses over udemy.

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Hi IBMers,
Do we need to mandatorily submit the rental agreement, rental proofs and landlord's PAN to claim HRA for any amount?
Please help me with your suggestions. Thanks in advance 😊

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What’s the work-life balance at Strategy& and EY-Parthenon in the London offices? At the moment I’m averaging around 50-55 hours at my boutique - higher or lower?

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What’s a fair expectation for my first raise? Publicly traded co with ~2500 employees. I’ve been doing litigation with the company for almost 3 yrs and have only had a 2% cost of living raise so far. Graduated in 2014. Base comp is $127.5k in the Philly area. I see salaries all over the place in this site and it’s hard to tell whether mine is competitive.

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What is the salary range for grade 26 in optum?

I am being offered 17 fix + 81 employer pf contribution + 2.55 variable.

Is this an good offer for grade 26??

like
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JPMorgan Chase recently introduced a policy change to increase the notice period to 60 days. I'm a 602 and resigned recently and yet my LWD is showing up as 30 days from now. Anyone recently resigned can confirm if they are facing the same or new policy is in effect. This is causing confusion with the next companies I'm interviewing with.

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Hi TCSers,

If anyone knows, what TCS UK gives in on-boarding kit? Do they provide iphone and macbook for UK employees?

Thanks.

likefunny

Hello. Anyone get accepted into a part-time program in D.C. with gpa & LSAT below the school's median? I've taken the LSAT twice & plan on taking it again in October. I have all other parts of the law school application close to being finalized but the LSAT is the only thing preventing me from applying. Any insight or advice?

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Sorry for posting this here. I have reached our to a number of RE attorneys and they said they don’t handle landlord tenant situations hence the post here

Would somebody be willing to spend 10-20 mins with me to review my response to a demand/collection letter? Sincerely appreciate any help

Additional Posts in The Real Estate Bowl

Finally got an offer accepted on a home I love! (In DC) Spent months searching. Next thing is getting to the closing date.

Now I feel super anxious about everything going thru and getting the keys. How difficult is that process of getting to close, have heard the underwriting portion could be a headache?

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Current Tenant Rent: $1075, Monthly Payment: $400 (with property management), Initial Repairs: $2-5K, Down Payment: $12K

At surface level, do these numbers check out?

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It’s a myth that renting is “throwing money away.” Maintenance of a property is expensive! I’m selling my place and I’ve never felt more free. I can use that money (~$5000/month) to invest even more.

likefunnysmart

Recently freed from the consulting game (starting end of next week) with a great severance and new energy around RE. Closed our first REPE fund last year as well as a sizeable personal portfolio in a large midwestern city, all on the side.
If you’re accredited and interested in putting some $ to work in this super low yield environment, ping me! Ramping up the next fund soon.

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For people who recently refinanced, bought or is in the process of buying a new home, what APR did you get?

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I would like to learn more about development and real estate. Can anyone recommend any books or courses that you think are informative. Eventually I would like to own a few apartment buildings, but I know there is a lot I need to learn 1st. Any advice appreciated. 

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At what income level should one be comfortable to spend 2400/mo on rent in HCOL? Assuming single, no kids, no debt or major expenses.

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Interested in development. Any recommendations on how to get started? Are there any organizations that will fund any part of a development project?

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Thoughts on buying pre-construction homes in markets that are popping and flipping selling them when construction is complete?

My uncle does this (he’s a realtor) and usually gets 2-3x return. Obviously there is huge risk because property prices can change a lot in 1-2 years, but at the same time the upside is hard to ignore.

Anyway I protect myself against the downside risk? (other than loosing my down payment)

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I'm under contract for a new build in progress that won't be done until much later this year. I fully expect interest rates will be higher than what I originally estimated. I may or may not try to lock in a good rate early, but I'm planning on renting it out and this throws a bit if a wrench in my margins. I can take it financially, but wondering, If I absolutely needed to get out of buying it, what recourse do I have? Or could I go ahead, and refinance later (who knows rates at that time...)?

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Would you pay an extra ~$100/month on top of existing monthly PITI for access to $65k in equity from your home? Want to use it for either A) down payment on new primary or B) net new investment property and see if that can fund the next primary

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Has anyone used Loan Cabin to refinance? They seem to have the best rates.

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Anyone punched out of state 4-10 unit apt building? How did you find the listing?

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Any Property Management recs in Seattle area? :(

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How can I invest in real estate ? Looking for an additional passive income source

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Hi all - any advice for a first time real estate investor looking to make their first purchase at the end of 2021.

I plan on saving $50K, for a $350-400K property in the Long Island, NY area for my first property. Does this sound reasonable? And does anyone have any experience & advice investing in the LI area?

Id like to rent it out for some positive cash flow that I can then start using to save for my 2nd property (sounds easy when I type it).

Thanks all for your input - stay safe!

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Does anyone have experience managing an out of state property yourself? Are there any tips/services you use?

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If you living currently in a home and looking to buy another home but plan to put only 10% on the new home, can I pay the remaining 10% after selling my existing home in 1-2 months .. and get the PMI

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I have over 12 years in B2B sales/sales management experience along with a graduate degree. I am wanting to shift gears and I am at a point where I can invest time in myself to learn through practical experience. The new industry I am wanting to pursue is real estate investment. I have read all the books but want some hands on experience on the property management side. How could I best leverage my skills for a role in this, and what should my expectations be for negotiation in compensation?

Hi all, I’m in the north east metro area and due to the current RE market we decided to look into PA specifically Lancaster. Anyone in this market and have any thoughts on where it’s headed? We’re looking purchasing a single family property all cash at 110k that rents for $1100 a month. The last owner bought for 35k like 15 years ago 😩 but hoping buying and holding for a few years will give a equal or greater returns over the long run.

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