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Coach
Agree with the rest on future of the stock market. By the time the stock market collapses globally with no recovery in sight, we’d all be worrying more about basic day-to-day survival than our retirement funds.
If you feel you wanna buy a farm you should try spending at least a year at a farm to understand how much effort (and $) it takes to maintain a farm year round.
Even if you don’t plan to sell produce for profit and have a farm purely to grow food for yourself, you still need money for equipment, seeds, fertilizer, livestock and also money to buy other food /necessities that you can’t grow / make on your own. Plus all the diseases or other issues (drought/flood/insects) that could wipe out your livestock / crops. Plus the fact that you still need to keep tending to your farm when you’re old (unless you’re sure your kids and grandkids will be happy to continue to stay on and help you or you plan to hire someone else to do so for you).
Don’t be fooled by all the TikTok videos showing ppl in cute country clothes baking bread and picking fruits. Farming can be meaningful but it’s also a lot of hard work which doesn’t end even in retirement.
Part of me is really tempted to take out all that money and just buy a farm and learn how to grow food
I agree with VP1 - if you enjoy farming, why not? Life is very short and we all get to live and experience it just once. I struggle and work really hard to build my very first $1M investment (mostly boring but loving SP500). This is where the magic happens. My effort of growing it from $1M to $3M in is no where close to growing it from $100K to $1M. My advice is continue building memories and spending time with your family and love ones. Investment will grow and you will accomplish your goals as long as you make incremental improvement everyday. Best of luck!
The level that owning your own farm won’t help you.
I mean if the President started plans to build an Arc de Triomphe style monument to himself I’d be worried but until then… totally fine
Coach
The NYSE was founded in 1792… since then the average return (including dividends) has been 9.5%-10%, over 230 years… over that time period we have seen recessions, global wars, global pandemics, multiple depressions and panics, inflation, stagflation, political crises… the market always finds a way to deliver…
Is it naive to believe that it would never end? Maybe… but if the cycle were to end, we would have bigger problems than market performance and the value of your dollar… you’d have to worry about who has more sticks and stones…
Subject Expert
It depends what you mean by "collapse" and what you mean by "the stock market."
For the stock market, national or global, to crash by 50% or more and stay down for years, nothing that unusual has to happen. It happens many times per century, historically.
For a national stock market to crash or stagnate in such a bad way, for such a long time, that all the things we talk about in this bowl, like several percent real annualized returns over a saving lifetime, the 4% rule or even the 2% rule in withdrawal, do not materialize for the lifetime of a generation of investors, is not that rare. It has happened to many countries in recent history including many where you would not, walking down the street where a generation of bankrupt retirees live, be able to tell.
For the global stock market to do that? Never happened once in world history so far.
Why do you feel that your "buy some land" plan has to be opposed to "investing in the stock market?" Why can't you do both?
The stock market obviously will collapse at some point then come back again. That is why you do 6 or 7% when projecting over a long time