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Generally, the treadmill will be more accurate. When using an Apple Watch indoors, it is somewhat of an estimate. Your speed/distance is calculated by stride length and stride frequency. So when you run outdoors, it calibrates itself by using the gps distance and stride frequency to calculate your average stride length. And when you run indoors, it uses that calibrated stride length and your actual stride frequency to calculate speed/distance. But your stride length on a treadmill might be slightly off from your stride length outdoors. So that’s the most likely explanation.