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Love anyone who quotes Baltic dry index, I like the concept
Pro
I specialozed on Logistics and Supply Chain. I love the idea of trading, investing and commoditizing supply chain services.
So I agree with you BDRY is both awesome and makes me money.
Do you think it’s worth potentially investing?
Pro
These plays are rotational. I have made a lot of money on them. Its a matter of understanding which way its going to go.
Cool thing about them is that they are generally predictable.
If there is a lot of need for steel in China. BDRY goes up. Since volume means restricted capacity on the few ships that can cross the Panama canal.
If BDRY goes up without express demand in China, its usually because VALE is selling a lot to Australia or China, meaning Vale will do well, and RIO not as much.
If VALE isn't going up. But BDRY is, then RIO is probably making big moves.
If all RIO, VALE and FSUGY are doing well. Then the whole market is doing well. So raws are expensive, X and other steel players will be sucking.
On the flipside, if the raws are sucking, the steel players tend to go up.
I don't know which way it seems to be pointing now. But we are at an inflection point. So there may be more money there.
A more limited market like this is much more predictable than tech or crypto for example.
Pro
So turns out it wasn't iron moving in Iron lanes, it was coal. The play was picking up the Dry index.
Iron is still climbing as expected without changes to supply and China is starving for coal and iron still.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3650100-main-sea-freight-index-surges-to-three-month-high-on-chinese-coal-demand