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Chief
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Additional Posts in Politics
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Chief
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Pro
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Rising Star
Anyone else feeling this?
Chief
Chief
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Rising Star
This take is actually also what principled conservatives unanimously agree with. But there are so few left.
Good post. Thanks for sharing.
Pro
I’d love to see more evidence of this “cutting taxes increases revenue without adding to debt.”
Enthusiast
The US has 4-5 year left according to Ray Dalio. Enjoy it while it lasts, liberals.
I know Trump deserves a lot of hate, but I do think you attribute way too many problems to him and extrapolate too much to areas that are symptoms instead of the problem. Example - Ds spend years talking about how Rs are literally evil and Trump is illegitimate; then the summer of love happens. Example - Bernie supporter shows up to congressional baseball game and shoots the R team. These are symptoms - not the problem.
Pay attention to BRICs countries trying to build new monetary standard without collaboration with developed western societies. Conflict manifesting between net exporters and net importers.
Chief
Dead on. Short term gains are valued more than long term stability because that’s where the incentive structure is.
I wish the Hot Hand fallacy wasn’t so powerful in terms of market performance. The market goes up and down. Shouldn’t be surprising.
I wouldn’t call it just an incentive structure thing though. I don’t even think that’s the main driver. I think it’s more of a systemic problem with the financial/sovereign entities being propped up by bad debt to yield fake growth in other asset classes. And then the fake growth turns out to be nothing more than greed and consumers leveraging themselves up to buy on credit or take out loans.
It’s bad sovereign debt transitioning to bad private debt (at least that’s how I’m feeling today; sometimes I think it’s bad private debt leading to bad sovereign debt).
Disclaimer - I do think GDP is a bit of an outdated concept; prefer discounted cash flow for valuation. But it’s good for sanity checks, especially when studying the history.
Enthusiast
What does this chart even tell us? That stock market valuations have increased over time as a percent of gross domestic product? Am sure that’s partly due to lofty valuations and easy money but maybe also partly because there could be a greater proportion of companies that are public?
It’s a sanity check and displays how we use leverage that is absorbed by asset markets and creates bubbles. Downstream consequences are widening wealth gaps and fragile markets for which the magnitude of swings of the business cycle are getting larger.
It’s not a perfect measure (nothing is), but has been useful historically. It commonly uses a stock market index called the Wilshire 5000 which calibrates so that a 1 pt move corresponds to $1bil change to US market cap. But you can replace it with the market cap of pretty much any index (or basket to indexes) and still arrive at the same conclusions. A better criticism is that we now have global companies with global sales, and foreign sales don’t really show up in gdp.