What long term (30 years) inflation adjusted return can I assume for my financial planning? Dad was saying he thinks it’ll be 3% which seems insanely low

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No, that's not insanely low over the long term, it's about right:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi#:~:text=Inflation%20Rate%20in%20the%20United,percent%20in%20June%20of%201921.

If you want to be more conservative in your estimates, go with 4% or 5%.

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That makes sense.

Depends on what you are invested in. If bonds, I assume a pretty small number. So 500 has historically been about 7. That would be a decent estimate. Of course it could be much more or less. Don’t know your goal is but 3 seems a bit low. Very well could be more accurate than 7 but won’t know for 30 years.

I’m going to be in all stock for the 30 years for context

3% is conservative but not far off. My base case is 4%

The sp500 inflation adjusted return for the past 30 years was a bit over 8%. Maybe that’s abnormal but there were some big drops in the market over that period.

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