Does anyone else foresee that because of AI, there will be a large consolidation of law firms, and that eventually that new group of larger (but fewer) law firms will have to decrease billable rates?

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I don't think any firm is decreasing billing rates. If anything, rates will only go up at a faster rate because firms are expecting to only be working on the most important/ complex deals and cases.

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No lol

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The consolidation piece is plausible, but I don’t think ai will *cause* consolidation so much as it may just accelerate what’s already happening. Firms have been trending that way for reasons that have nothing to do with AI.

I’m skeptical on the billable rate decrease point. Historically, tech adoption has tended to correlate with *higher* billable rates, not lower, and I don’t see AI breaking that pattern. It may compress the junior layers, but at the partner level, widespread AI adoption probably just increases leverage and makes partners richer, not poorer. lol
And if we actually get to the point where ai replaces all of us, then billable rates and consolidation are the least of our concerns.

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100% agree, the industry has been not only consolidating, but also stratifying by size (though organic growth rather than mergers), for many years now. Totally unrelated to AI, though if AI eventually puts pressure on the business it could be an accelerant.

The firms at most risk, both from AI and in general, are the middling ones. You either need to become a massive high-end scale player at the top of the market, or smaller, leaner, and specialized. In between is trouble.

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No, rates will go up because we are smarter and more efficient.

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No. Firms won’t be able to bill for training juniors on grunt tasks anymore but AI will speed up the deal flow process letting firms handle more sophisticated work.

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