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I’m in the same boat but I’d probably wait it out til manager
Really depends on a few factors. I think a really big question to ask yourself is how confident do you think you’ll be to get that manager promotion if you’re already dreading dragging your feet about another busy season? If you’re already feeling that and people get a sense of it you might end up staying and not get promoted anyway. My advice would be leave if you’re unhappy, because promotions aren’t guaranteed.
On same boat here. Going into my 3rd year as senior. I’ll wait it out.
Do you want to leave for Industry? Or want to jump to see if you can get promoted?