I’m invested in whole market etfs (mainly sp500 + nasdaq + a bit of the rest of the world) but I’m concerned by the ai bubble burst. I do think that there’s a bubble that is going to burst, the question is when.

I know it’s not really FIRE-ish, but I’m thinking about getting some protection (put spreads, buffer etf…).

What are your thoughts?

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Thoughts are that you shouldn’t try to time the market

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I think you are missing some obvious ways to help.

S&P500 and especially NASDAQ are not total market funds.

S&P500 is a large cap fund. NASDAQ has a heavy growth tilt. And they are both US only.

You are tilting heavily into the specific bubble you are worried about!

Consider diversifying your equities to stop tilting toward growth, and to have (at least approximately) market weight in US small cap and in international stocks. This would cut your exposure to the tech bubble (if there is one) by half or more, and increase your expected returns. And it wouldn't involve any market timing or stock picking.

It may also be worth considering whether 100% stocks is a good allocation for you, given your age and portfolio size and objectives and so on. It's not a crime to hold 20% fixed income, and it may help you relax.

likesmart

Smart. You can easily justify 33% international exposure as a permanent allocation.
Also agree there’s zero need to be in Nasdaq at all if you are in S&P (or only a small allocation)
Of course Nasdaq has outperformed nearly all other indices, but no reason to expect that will continue indefinitely.

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Completely agree. More money is lost by trying to time the market.

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Talk to the guy on here who bragged about selling everything back in February

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Pretty sure we would have heard from him.

You will lose money trying to time the market. You will lose even more money if you get it right this one time. Remain objective and only adjust allocations as you get closer to retirement. These are expensive thoughts

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I'm steadily contributing everything to the S&P 500 until i retire in 30+ years. Time in the market is a much better strategy than trying to time the market. It will go up and it will go down in the short-run, but in the long run it will always go up.

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Don't obsess over all the chatter about the AI bubble bursting. There's good reason to be skeptical about what's happening in the AI space, but that's not the entire market. If you invest in index funds and you're reasonably diversified you should be fine in the long run.

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Options are costly, they expire, and reducing equity holdings works better, regardless of how well the concept is marketed.

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Agree on not timing the market, but SP500 is a really narrow slice of the market. Agree with broadening allocation as a strategic shift for the long term and/or just rebalancing. Just moved a bunch into internationals as the run up in the US left allocations off kilter.

You and I can’t predict the future. There is nothing to know/do but stay the course with your investments.

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