Is US the only country (or 1 of very few) that is allowing open COVID testing i.e. with or w/o symptoms. Could US openness to testing be a contributing factor to why cases trend high in US compared to other countries?

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More testing is good. But early, randomized testing would have been better. You can make the argument that increased testing is leading to more cases when the overall positivity rate is about the same. That’s not what’s happened over the past 4-6 weeks. We went from a plateau of 20K daily cases at 4-5% positivity to 70K daily cases at 8-9% positivity. When your positivity doubles, the increased cases are not solely due to increased testing. It’s because there’s unmitigated community spread.

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For additional evidence:

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I read a report by a statistician mentioning that while cases are undercounted across the globe, cases in the EU are severely undercounted (by a magnitude of 5-10x of the US) if we look at case fatality rate.

For example, the COVID CFR currently in Italy is 15%, 27% in France, 36% in Belgium, 14% in the UK, 9.5% in Spain, etc. In comparison, in the US it is around 5%. We have strong evidence at this point that the true death rate of COVID ranges from 0.4%-1.2% so if we extrapolated that to populations, it would suggest US cases are undercounted by ~4x, UK by 10x, Italy by 15x, and France by 27x.

What that means is the US truly did do an abysmal job, but it would appear that Europe in March and April was hit equally as bad as the US from May - July, which holds up if you look at current per capita COVID deaths where the US is on par with or slightly behind most of Europe (with the exception of Germany). However, the number of cases per capita in Europe are far behind which cannot be fully explained statistically by a slightly older population based on the actual population that tested positive in these countries. If you adjust the case counts this way, the per capita COVID infections are about the same in Europe and the Us which would make sense.

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Many thanks SA2. Interesting.

To add to this, it seems mortality rates are not necessarily comparable across countries - one strong case in point being Belgium. Key differences between Belgium death counting and other countries:
— deaths in retirement homes are included (although most countries do so as well)
— the COVID death count includes not only confirmed cases but also possible cases (articles I’ve seen mention ~3/4 of COVID deaths have not been tested)

Belgian officials have labeled it as “prudent” counting; and don’t care much about what it looks like internationally

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No

likefunnyhelpful

/thread

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More testing doesn’t lead to more deaths. We have like a quarter of the global Covid deaths here. The narrative that testing creates cases is asinine and has to end.

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Nope, fundamental misunderstanding of what’s driving cases. We failed to get masks on people early, never had a coordinated federal response (see the vanity fair piece on Kushner), didn’t really do contact tracing, and have a disproportionate section of the population who hasn’t (or continues to not) take the virus seriously. Actually, an ongoing problem is that we don’t have fast enough turnarounds / enough tests in hotspots (google Arizona Covid testing)

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More testing doesn’t change the hospitalization rate in the USA. That’s the much bigger sign that the virus is out of control.

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No. The countries that beat this did open testing, rapidly and frequently.

By the time you suspect someone has coronavirus they've already spread it to many people.

Countries that beat this did forced open testing. It was effective. What we're doing isn't.

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South Korea is testing for any reason.

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Taiwan as well. I believe Australia and New Zealand too.

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Agree with the above.

Also, for reference, several EU countries allow open testing (e.g. France). I haven’t heard of EU countries not allowing open testing. Don’t know for Canada / Mexico.

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Mexico has testing available for anyone who can pay, but it's rather expensive for somebody earning an average salary

Agree with PWC1. Also, there’s been an increase in the week over week deaths. Though, it’s lower than what we saw in April.

likesmart

There are other countries doing open testing. The reason the US is not beating this is because the government/healthcare system is shot and there are idiots debating their rights to not wear a mask. The mix of the two is the coronavirus’ wet dream.

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China tested entire cities (e.g. Beijing, Wuhan) last month simply b/c of less than 10 cases, and results came back within 3 days (US is like 5-7 days)

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I think a better metric to look at is deaths per capita. And yes, I know there's absolutely a lagging indicator with that, but with testinf procedures being so inconsistent between not just countries but states and even within states, deaths are probably the most accurate thing to track.

And again I get what makes it less than ideal. Obviously some populations might be more likely to die, or have better or worse healthcare systems and treatment, etc. But everyone who dies gets a death certificate.

Are we handling this poorly as a nation? You bet. But if you look at deaths per capita we're not the worst and you'll see that even those behind us aren't that far behind.

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Deaths per capita, we are doing pretty bad.

USA is in 10th place in the world at 480 deaths per 1 million residents. That’s around one death per 2,000 people.

UK in 3rd place with 680 deaths per million.
Italy in 7th place with 582.
Brazil at 12th place with 445.
Canada 24th with 237.
Germany 42nd with 110.
Australia at 125th with 9.
S. Korea at 138th with 6.
Thailand at 178th place with 0.8 deaths per million.

Sort by “Deaths per 1M”
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We’re doing open testing for antibodies

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In China, anyone that wants a test can get a test and if you tested positive, it’s free treatment (all hospital bills waived)

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No, and testing in many parts of the US sucks. It’s great in NYC but hard to find and takes 2+ weeks for results in many areas (mine included).

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I think they also check the positive rate, and aim for that rate to be stable at 5% or lower. If the positive rate is over that, then it’s a rough signal that there’s not enough testing. What I heard was that the % positive rate in the worst affected states was much higher than that 5% figure...so not only were there a lot of cases, there were likely a lot of positive people not being tested. If number of cases went up a lot, and % positive went down a lot, then you could conclude that the increase in cases was tied to more testing. But my understanding is that this is not the case in a significant way.

Source: my local news

Your local news gives you more useful info than all major networks combined

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