What are thoughts on ARM mortgages? I’m predicting interest rates will be lower than today in 3/5 years. So why not take out an ARM mortgage at a lower rate today, and refinance in 3 or 5 years when (hopefully) rates are lower?

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Everyone who went bankrupt in 2008 thought the same thing

likesmart

Willful ignorance

The ARM is a smart move. If rates are high, that means inflation is high, which means your pay will go up too. You’ll be fine.

I’m not responsible for teaching others how to think logically.

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If rates go to the moon that starter home gets harder to sell. IMO the risk of going variable on a loan that is material to your net worth is just not worth it.

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High interest rates will bring down real estate values. It’s happening right now. They will also result in higher unemployment so I wouldn’t count on your higher wages argument.

LOL

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I would stay away from an ARM. The rates over the last 10 yrs have been historically low, and I don’t know if we will ever see rates that low again. If rates do drop, just refinance. If you are determined to do an ARM, I would do at least a 5 year ARM.

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The 5 year barely saves anything. At that point, go FIXED.

smart

You’re playing a game of chance, if the market goes to the gutter that arm loan is going to kill you. The only logical reason you would take an ARM is if you are buying a starter home (and are planning on selling relatively quickly).

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Stagflation means inflation up and GDP down. But GDP growth does not equal wage growth. Just look at today; the strongest job market in four decades, while technically ‘in recession’.

I honestly barely saw a difference when looking at arm rates vs traditional rates recently

helpful

That seems a tad high for fixed rate: what’s the loan to value ratio + actual loan value.

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ARM is only helpful if you want to reduce your monthly right now especially if you are really stretching your budget. If you do, atleast take a 7/1 coz 7 years is the typical home holding time. You can always refinance at the end of the ARM, if you consider the typical refinance cost of 2% loan value, you can do the math on whether you will come out ahead at the end of 7 years

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The big myth is that you can "always refinance at the end of the ARM" that's true unless you are upside down.

The house I bought in 2014 was purchased by the previous owners in 2007 for over 100k less then I bought it for in 2014 because housing prices had still not recovered.

Get a 3yr ARM and in three years, when BTC is back at $90K+, just pay cash for your property and you're gucci!

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I'm also hoping crypto goes to the moon again, lol.

uplifting

There are good reasons for an ARM. I just signed for a 3 7/8% 7/1 ARM that gets me out to when my retirement $s will be accessible to pay it off if needed.

helpful

By taking a mortgage instead of using all the cash coming out of the prior house, I’ll have much more in after tax. Spending this prior to 65 doesn’t show up as income.

ARM mortgages = adjustable-rate mortgage mortgages

funny

Just refinance your 30-yr fixed if rates tank later on.

If this is a starter home or one you won’t hold on to do an ARM. But stay away from the 3 or 5 years. Do 7/1 or 10/1. Rates are considerably cheaper than 30y fixed and likely rates won’t be much worse 10 years from now.

You can just refinance later and it's lower risk

You can go for 7/1 or 10/1 ARM if you are not overly leveraged. If you are up to the neck fixed is better

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