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Pay cut for a “promotion” seems like a losing proposition (I thought the whole point of promotions was to make more money!) Gambling on a bonus wouldn’t make a difference in that calculus. Maybe worth considering if you were trying to escape a toxic environment or dead-end career.
Your second scenario seems like you could do the math: figure out what your take-home would be after the pay increase, city taxes, and cost of commute. Then figure out how many hours you’d commute each week. You can now calculate the “hourly rate” you’re charging for your commute. How does this compare to the “hourly rate” you’re making with your current salary and working hours? Do you value your time more or less than that amount?
👆PH1 has the answer. Especially since companies are notorious for floating the idea of a nondescript, non-contractual bonus then suddenly saying they don’t have the $$$ when EOY bonus time arrives.
Having to pay NY tax will cut significantly into your pay.
First option, screw NY tax