Currently at IBM in a messy workday dev project, 5 yoe.
Cctc is 15L fixed plus bonus around 5% i get annually.

Today received Infosys offer: 16.5L fixed + 2.9L variable.

Worth accepting the offer and start my notice period?

In the worst case if I finally join them, my net post-tax salary will increase by only 7k monthly but if I assume Infosys pays at least 50% of that variable quarterly, my quarterly pay will increase by around 50k i e. about 17k monthly.

Is this worth taking the risk?

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I am assuming you might have received JL 4 or 5 the average variable payout is 70 to 80 percent for JL 4 and 60 - 70% for JL5

I would advice dont rely on variable pay because based on rating the variable would be decided in infosys. Also, I think 10% hike on fixed CTC I feel its low-balled. Its upto you based on your circumstance you can take better call

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