de Blaiso says we’re on track to hit orange zone of restrictions post Thanksgiving which means no more indoor dining among other things.

The metric they are using is % positivity rate.

My question is this - is this a fair metric and if not what is a better metric to compare if it’s getting worse and we need social controls?

I only got tested when I traveled out of state for wedding and thought I was at a high(er) risk for exposure. Tested positive but I was already expecting that. (Contd)

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I agree that positivity rate isn't a fair metric, but using hospital beds is even worse. At that point, it's too late and you could've saved not only hospital beds, but lives as well.

likesmart

I guess you and I have diff viewpoints on how the metric is skewed. For me and my peers, everyone I know has only gotten tested if they were afraid they had it. Most ppl I know have not traveled and have not been out and about irresponsibly.

I’ve heard lines are now 4hrs long (was 1hr when I went 3 wks ago). There’s no way I’m waiting 4 hrs if I don’t think I have to

Hospital admissions is a bad indicator because at that point you are screwed. While the positivity rate (and I believe it’s the growth not % of positive cases vs not positive) is not perfect is a better indicator of where it’s heading and how it will impact the hospitals.

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Well yes it tells you the growth, because you want to know how it’s growing. Personal behavior obviously skews it, but the fact you are sick and wanted to get tested vs you are sick and had to be tested, doesn’t change the fact you are sick and likely infecting other people.

Op the flaw in your thinking is the assumption that people are only getting tested if they think they have COVID. At this point, especially in NYC, many people are getting tested regularly, either to be able to visit family/friends safely, or because they are in higher risk jobs (remember that all teachers get tested regularly, as well as all medical workers). So %positive cases from testing is absolutely how we need to look at this to have any control

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Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. By the time they start rising, you’re screwed.

Additionally, test rates are not driven entirely by personal decisions. A lot of city and healthcare employees are getting tested regularly. So increases in the positivity rate will be driven partly by more of those people being infected.

like

Did you ever take an operations class and do a case on cracking the whip?

That's why you don't use hospital beds

like

I get it. Lagging indicator. Give me a better metric then. If tests were as easy as taking my temp at home on a thermometer (ie free, no wait, convenient) then I bet positivity rates would tick down as more negative ppl would get tested.

With how long it takes to get a test, feel like ppl are only getting them if they feel like they might have it already which would be artificially inflating numbers.

I wouldn’t want to subject myself to 1-4hr lines to get tested if I felt that I was being careful wasn’t in riskier situations.

I think we should be using covid caused hospital admission as a metric. Mine was so mild I wasn’t even really sure if I had it.

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