Humanitarian stuff and personal feelings aside, I hypothesize that aid to Ukraine is an spectacular investment from a US policy perspective. Yes, there are short run costs at the pump and clear budget hits in the short term, but I suspect that the prospect of divvying up Russia's annual $100B energy revenue in Europe will do far far more than pay for itself. Plus there's Europe picking up some military budget slack in the years to come. Your takes, armchair economists who've done the homework?

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Personally I doubt this.

Less oil available raises oil prices which are a key component of consumption in the US.

And Russia produces more raw goods for market than goods we could easily substitute by bringing production to the US.

The key advantages are geopolitical in that Russia frequently clashes with US interests and sponsors disinformation into the US. If Russia falls that will isolate China further, and provide greater ability to pivot to an East Asian foreign policy.

likesmart

Are you expecting the US to export more energy to Europe?

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I suspect Quatar will do most in the near term, but Europe will expedite their transition to energy independence.

If Russia were selling oil to Europe and not invading other countries, that would not be very relevant to us. Maybe there is something to be said of the US filling the energy void, but there is a substantial portion of this country (whose guy occupies the white house at this moment) that is not interested in expanding US energy production from fossil fuels.

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