I’m struggling to believe the first case of this only made it here in late Jan with how open our borders are with China. It’d be interesting to test the whole US pop and see just how many of us had it

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There was an interesting WSJ op-ed today by 2 Stanford epidemiologists that touched on this. They posit that based on the very few instances where entire populations have been tested, we’ve got a LOT more infections than are reported / are much further up the exponential growth curve. I think they assumed Jan 1st for epidemic seeding in the US. Plus side to that would be the fatality rate is a lot lower than current estimates.

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Interesting. I think it would be good to test the entire population or households or something that would give fair sampling. I do think we’d see the fatality rate a lot lower than current estimates are showing.

It sure will be interesting when we can get a test to see if you've had it at any point. I think well be surprised how many people had it unknowingly/assumed it was the flu.

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That’s what I think too. If we could get an antibody test at some point I think it’d be very enlightening. I keep hearing doctors say the flu season was abnormally high this year. And especially among younger, healthy individuals (ie 18-45) that just stay home in bed and fight illnesses versus ever seeking medical help.

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Yep. My mom got super super sick in Dec with the ‘flu’ after she has arrived from a trip overseas. She was literally bedridden for days and days, couldn’t move or breathe, crazy high fever and cough, and eventually hospitalized for pneumonia. Literally she was on the brink. She had taken a flu shot too. Few days after, other family that visited her got super super sick and bedridden. She’s had the flu many times before but never this bad, I couldn’t believe it at the time. so yeah, I’m struggling too.

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Wow! Hope they’ve both gotten better! Yeah I asked because I had something similar late last year and I also had a flu shot and tested negative for the flu. doctors didn’t know and suggested I just go home and sleep.

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I’m pretty sure I had it in January. I had all the symptoms, and had gotten my flu shot in October. It took over a month until the respiratory issues started clearing up. I also ended up testing negative for flu, antibiotics weren’t working at first, etc. I’ve never been so sick. 29F, but I travel a ton so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that I came into contact with someone carrying it.

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Same story for me. With how much I travel it’s quite possible I came in contact with someone who had it. I was down for 2-3 weeks.

The first “confirmed” case =/= the first case

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Agreed. And to the point about tracking and surveillance, I fully understand the sentiment and don’t want it either, but honestly the private companies and the government have been tracking and surveying us for a long time. It’s just the difference between doing it on or under the table. (Perhaps you can tell I’m a bit cynical cuz I just read Permanent Record by Edward Snowden 🙃)

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Yep, I also believe that many people had it before tests were widely available - I got horribly sick with all exact covid symptoms the same day that the first case was declared positive in New York, but got told by a doc that it “couldn’t possibly be covid as I hadn’t travelled from China” (I had however come from London Heathrow shortly beforehand) - I locked myself in for the past month and a half ha

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Glad you’re better!!

First documented case.. we know ppl had it before then.. too many folks are saying they were super sick and drs telling them it wasnt the flu

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In Jan, I got really sick. Both eyes were gooey and red along with congestion, etc. . Doctor said it was allergies... But that's the first time I never had allergies before in my 31 years of living and I'm from Texas. Cleared up in about 5 days...not sure what that was.

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I got really sick in December. Worse than the normal flu, caught something on a flight. Makes me wonder...

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Will need antibody tests to truly understand. While I think it may been here longer in some cases, it didn’t have the critical mass that it does now, this is a recent development, as evidence by the surge in hospitalizations sweeping across affected countries.

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I think antibody tests would be very interesting to understand how much of the country was exposed. May also help understand the amount of asymptomatic people.

Someone is seeing the information but not the general public

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Should prob know this, but did we have an especially high death rate from the “flu” this year? Keep hearing people say “it’s a bad year for the flu, bad flu season”, which is fairly accurate just given how many people have gotten sick in general, but that might explain.

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I don’t know what the actual flu rate is but I have heard the exact same thing. When I went in earlier this year (after being sick for almost a week), the doctor tested me for flu and it came back negative. She went on to say it may just be another strain that the test doesn’t cover because it has been “a very high flu season”.

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