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I agree with your general premise that we just need to ride the wave and think long term.
That being said, it took a dozen years before the market exceeded where it was before the .com bubble burst (before many of you were even in high school).
I think the bigger fear is not the current dip, but whether this is the start of something akin to a .com bubble subprime loan meltdown double whammy. When I look at the longer term curve that I posted, the steepness of that curve makes you wonder if it is sustainable in any meaningful way.
I’m a decade out from retirement, and I am fortunate to have had the benefit of that big run up, but it still would be a shame if we ended up stagnating for that decade because of inflation arising out of injecting $6,000,000,000,000 into the economy during Covid, the inability for the government to adjust its policies to combat inflation because its spent all of its bullets on that front already, and a possible land war in Europe (or at least the economic fall out from that war and the related back and forth with sanctions).
Especially considering that the first dozen years of my career was an essentially flat period for the market.
A1 the market actually wasn’t that bad for that long because dividends. Try a chart of the “SP500TR” instead
Chief
I’m surprised there isn’t more discussion about using options to protect against a big fall. For about a couple percent you can buy out of the money puts to protect against a big loss.
Chief
The issue with that is that you have gains if you want out of that at some point in the future. With puts you can just buy VOO and change your hedging over time without having to sell the primary asset.
+1 on OPs take.
Selling now is attempting to time the market, and requires doing that *again* when you decide to buy back in.
If you're 10 or even 5 yrs from retirement, the odds (for broad index, namely s&p500, based on history including the "lost decade" starting this century) are heavily in favor of just holding course.
Do note that two points on the S&P graph do not take into account that no one bought all and sold all at either of those points
Interesting, which is better, when steady buying over 30y
1) having market stay lower for 1st decade of earnings, then gain above average (
for 20y
2) steady (10%) market for 30y
Seems