Recent bull market got me thinking I can retire but then a day like yesterday really humbled me 😂

likefunnysmart
Posting as :
works at
You are currently posting as works at

what bull market? did you see what happened yesterday? one person is powerful enough to manipulate the entire stock market. it's not a bull market - it's a manipulated market

likefunny

Lol. It's still a bull market, and when has the market ever not been "manipulated"?

Wow, you guys are young. I lived through the dotcom burst and the 2007/8 financial crisis and I learned one thing - don't count your money until you sell. I've seen paper gains come and go many times. Now that I'm about to retire, I have some level of more conservative investing (like 20% portfolio is bonds and equivalents), but am still mostly planning on riding the market.

Before you retire, look at your portfolio and ask - if it goes down by half, would I survive? If the answer is no, you have no business retiring. My personal situation planned for pulling 3% annually from my Roth 401k, plus my fixed annuity (pension), assuming the market goes down by half. Plan for the worst, but hope for the best. Good luck!

likehelpful

If you have an advisor, I would ask them to stress test your plan… or you can do the math yourself… but if you had two years of 15%-20% drawdowns followed by unfavorable markets (less than average returns)… would you still be able to live your life without compromise… that’s the goal…

likeuplifting

S&P is up 12% this year, it’s been another good year so far.

But markets will do their thing, could easily be 20% down over the next 12 months

like

And then will still be net up a year later. “This time is different” gets wheeled out every few years. It’s always bounces back past previous ATH’s. The U.S. is not Japan.

Like C1 said, some of you have not lived through investing in a bear market.

I have been reading the Boglehead discussions on the 2008 GFC. The GFC was a quick tumble from the October 2007 ATH and slow burn bear market that did not bottom out until March 2009 (DJIA 6,469.95) which was 17 months later.

Those who were nearing or actively in retirement in 2007-2009 who did not have a 2-3 year cash cushion had to sell part of their investment holdings during 2007-2009 to finance living expenses. On top of this, many people lost jobs in early 2008 which forced some selling.

like

There have been a lot of calls lately (from Jamie Dimon and others) that we're due for a correction. That obviously makes sense, things can't just keep climbing, especially with all the chaos in the background. Yesterday, I think, was a blessing, a warning in all of our ears not to get complacent.

like

"You know, I said there's storm clouds but I'm going to change it … it's a hurricane," Dimon said Wednesday at a financial conference in New York...You'd better brace yourself," Dimon told the roomful of analysts and investors. "JPMorgan is bracing ourselves and we're going to be very conservative with our balance sheet." June 2022

Yes - you need to live a few years where despite contributing $2,000 a month your money stays flat month over month over month. With blind trust it may or may not ever go up.

like

Yes yes, conventional wisdom says it can go up or down. But what we’re experiencing right now is an intentional devaluation of the American currency of about ~10% so far this year. Being up ~12% markets really means you stayed about flat. Markets will continue to irrationally go up despite insane valuations because there’s a huge fear of holding cash.

like

Is that how to think about this? Isn’t inflation in the US more relevant? Feels like the devaluation doesn’t necessarily impact me if I’m just keeping USD and the prices locally stay put.

likesmart

There's going to be lots of downs and ups before you retire. The trick is to invest more whenever it dips, while it's "on sale".

If you were really financially ready to retire yesterday you still are today.

I guess it’s a choice.
Let’s say someone age 41 with 80% of their FI number.

With 100% equities you might hit the FI number at average age 45 +/- 3.5 years

With 50% bonds it’s maybe age 46 +/- 1 year

Related Posts

I have a new prospect. Small business owner that wants to start a 401k for himself and his employees. Who would be the top 2-3 organizations I contact, and what questions should I ask the providers?

like

Has anyone taken a loan from their 401K for a down payment? Yay or nay on this strategy?

like

Hi- in conversation to make a move, but curious what the total package looks like for an experienced associate? (PTO days, 401K and pension?) Also, is there a paternity leave program? Thanks!

im 27 and could possibly retire if I kept my spending low. However you never know what’s going to happen, do you? How do you deal with the uncertainty?

like
like

Working as a senior data analyst at startup clinical trial company in the NE. Have 6 years full time work experience in data analytics post graduate degree. With part time positions during and post undergrad + quantitative masters, more like 8-10 years. What is considered a good salary? I’m currently at $115k + 10% bonus (no 401k match), and might soon be considered for a promotion that involves managing. Just want to make sure I’m ready for salary negotiation. Thanks so much!

like

Does Boston Consulting Group have the following?
- HSA
- After tax contributions to 401k w/ in plan Roth conversion

I’m joining in a few weeks and doing some planning on how to adjust my existing accounts/strategy.

Thanks!

like

How much is “market” comp for a 5th year, general civil lit, AmLaw 200 defense firm with usual benefits (health, dental, 401k match up to 6%). I’m LA based. TIA

like

Can anyone invest in Roth IRA asking with 401k or is there a limit based on salary? I was told if you are making above X, you can't invest in Roth IRA. If this is true what's is X amount?

like

I’m looking to buy a practice in the Wilmington or Jacksonville area of North Carolina. In the business 17 years with clients in MA, NY and NC. Also interested in succession planning for any advisor in eastern NC looking to retire in the next 5 or 10 years

Is it worth saving money with 401K or get better rates in FD’s / Post Office etc in India ? FYI 50% match is provided by company for first 5% only

like

Hi EY people…who is the 401k provider for you? Vanguard?

like

Summer so it’s grill season! Looking to retire my old faithful Weber. Anyone try these ceramic/egg grills? Lowest price I saw is like $600 with the name brands almost $1k. Worth the price?

I don't want to ask the Mck recruiter more questions. Can someone explain the differences in the Profit Sharing Retirement Plan and the Money Purchase Pension Plan? Does Mck contribute to both?

Live in a HCOL area. Looking to buy in the next year. The least I can afford to buy would put a mortgage at 40% of my monthly take home pay (post tax + max out 401k) but 25% of gross income. Will 40% of take home pay make me house poor?

like

I need help. Anyone have information of being an advanced medical support assistant for veterans affairs? I got offered a job in the SF valley . The pay Is a bit less but it's about 5.5 miles from my house.close. Why do people pray for government jobs? At the moment I'm with ucla health as an admin assistant float permanent& have been offered permanent placement at a site in LA about 16 miles . The pay seems pretty decent& also have the pension plan. Been here about 2 years no issues.

like

Roth vs Traditional 401k, thoughts?

like

Have 50k in brokerage to put towards buying a place in Atlanta. Young 20 something who's lease is ending soon

Roth IRA and 401k are well funded but don't want to pull from there.

Should I buy and rent the extra bedrooms to friends, or stay renting and put savings in stock market?

like

How do you handle if both j1 and j2 offer health insurance or 401k? Do you decline if they’re the through the same provider?

like

Do desi consultants opt for 401K? Upside/downside?

like

More Posts

Is it bad form to meditate while you’re lying down in bed? Asking for a friend

like

Hi Guys,
I need a referral in Societe Generale. Can anyone please refer me.
I have job id and resume ready.

I’ve been racking up a ton of Etihad Guest points (~300k) but have been having a hard time spending them bc the Etihad Reward chart is dynamic 🙄🙄. Any suggestions on how to spend those points? They expire in a year.

like

What happens in case of OBI violation any idea in Morgan Stanley?

Did anyone apply for the recent CFTC labor and employment trial attorney posting? These things are a black hole so I thought maybe we could share status updates as they come.

like

Nano rising rapidly, great team and good roadmap. Look at the review by Datadash on YouTube

like

Hi everyone,
Need an help in getting referred to a position in Wipro
Please help at the earliest,i have the relavant job ID.

like

Hi,

We have openings for Senior Engineer under Data Analytics. Please send resume to
rc2015dsi@gmail.com for further discussion.

Experience: 5-8 years
Skills: Power BI, SQL
Location: Noida

like

As a Business analyst, with 7 years of experience in BFSI domain, what should be the Salary expectation?
2.5 * YOE justifiable?

What is the typical pay range for fund of funds? Looking for salary / TC information.

like

I used to be a consultant, now work in product marketing at a health tech startup. My goal is to transition to a PM role in big tech. What’s the best way to do so? What are the skills I need to gain / demonstrate to be able to be a PM?

like

How much do people make on average in VC after 2-3 years out of undergrad in MBB/IB?

like

Can we restart this bowl? Feels like there’s enough people on here to make it happen.

like

C L A S S I C .

Post Photo
like

Looking for a job in the energy in DC. Any companies recruit engineers with little business background/energy experience? I have 1.5 YOE, just not in energy. Background in engineering and polisci

If we missed to submit timesheet for first fortnight still we will get salary or not? In Accenture

like

Hi Fishes, need help.
I recently switched a company 3 months back in India. Now I have got an interview coming up from a company for Dublin Ireland location. What should I respond, if the interviewer asks, why I am leaving my current company in just 3 months.

Need acceptable responses in such situations. Thanks in advance.

like

Can a non-US citizen lawyer practice cannabis/marijuana law? Is it advisable considering the non-US citizen lawyer would have to prove good moral character when he wants to become a US citizen?

Folks,
please explain this joining bonus clause
12 months 1 day as LWD will not have recovery?
Or do i need complete minimum 14 months? I am confused
EY
Tia

Post Photo
like

Additional Posts in FIRE Financial Independence Retire Early

Do you count your car as part of your NW on Mint/other trackers?

like

Thoughts on potential business ideas or investment opportunities where I can live the life I deserve now and not in retirement? I’m always trying to think of potential business ideas and come up with nothing. As far as interests, it doesn’t matter what it is. As long as it makes money I’m interested.

like

Anybody using Marcus high yield savings? 1.9%APY seems like a no brainer, just want to be sure I’m not missing anything.

like

im 27 and could possibly retire if I kept my spending low. However you never know what’s going to happen, do you? How do you deal with the uncertainty?

like

Is there a definitive guide to cost of living? The obvious cost of living centers (SF, NYC, LA etc.) get covered a lot, but I’m wondering where my city falls. It’s a modest Midwest city with ~100k residents but is a relatively touristy spot. It often feels like a MCOL area but I’m not sure how to adequately judge that, and it would be helpful to know when comparing salaries and the like.

What are some aggressive ways to control your spending? I tried a little but of everything(paying myself first, only debit cards,cash) but seems like i have the urge to spend and i do so. Any tips?

like

How do you invest and save for your children? I’m thinking about setting them up with custodial brokerage accounts but don’t want them to have a heyday at 18. Did you create irrevocable trusts or?? They are too young for earned income and I don’t own a business so no IRA investing opportunities here.

like

Listening to Rich Dad Poor Dad and I keep expecting every story to end “and then everyone clapped” 🙄

likefunny

My monthly salary is around $6.4k after-tax. Living in NYC. Do you think it’s reasonable that I pay:
- about $1.5k on rent
- about $500 on utilities and subscriptions
- about $900 on student loan
- about $2k on food and etc.
My saving goals is around $3k so been trying to adjust my monthly spending.

likefunny

Once you hit your FI number, what are your plans? 1 yr? 3-5yrs? beyond?

like

I have mostly passive investments. I was thinking the other day: what if everyone had only passive investments? Wouldn’t this create incredibly high amount of systemic risk? Are we all sheep??

Sooo AMC.. who’s in?

😂

like

Have 50k in brokerage to put towards buying a place in Atlanta. Young 20 something who's lease is ending soon

Roth IRA and 401k are well funded but don't want to pull from there.

Should I buy and rent the extra bedrooms to friends, or stay renting and put savings in stock market?

like

Home reno financing question. Have a big project coming up in the $120-150k range. Funding sources are:
- 90k from a heloc around prime
- 10k from a credit card that offers promo checks at 2-3% for 12-18 months
- 375k in a brokerage
- 5-6k per month cash that I can put towards the project, loans, or brokerage

I don't want to stop funding the brokerage because my FIRE plan is less numbers based than "hoard like dragon until it's enough" but maybe I should... How would you optimize?

like

Is an IPO in anyone’s FIRE strategy? Maybe this is specific to the Bay Area, but it doesn’t seem that unrealistic to negotiate enough equity to make $1.5 mill off an IPO. Or maybe I’m dreaming 😂

like

What is a good read/place to start with FIRE? I’m 28 and have 1k in my bank account and 110k in student debt. Making 65k but have had to spend most of my savings on medical issues recently :( I think that deluge of shit is going to end soon and I can go back to saving, but I don’t know what my next move should be. Any advice would be really appreciated.

like

Has anyone bought a commercial space and eventually rented it out that resulted in a positive cash flow? If so? In which city?
I’m on a visa in U.S and looking to potentially invest in commercial spaces rather than residential places.
Age:25
T.C: 102K

like

what are the tax implications when you withdraw from your espp? what are the necessary steps you have to take so you don’t get overtaxed?

like

This is gonna sound stupid, but I’m honest - I can’t do math. Calculating a tip is as advanced as I get. Thank god for excel formulas and a math savvy husband. At the end of the day, I pay all the bills (I know- but I’m more organized) and make double his salary, what low stress effort (on my limited math capacity brain) can I do to increase wealth?

I feel like I should be doing more with extra money to help us financially, but I’m scared of having to study stocks and understand the numbers. 😖

like

Comment if you claim this coupon code. I’m not going to use it.

Post Photo
like

New to Fishbowl?

Download the Fishbowl app to
unlock all discussions on Fishbowl.
That was just a preview…
Sign Up to see all discussions
  • Discover what it’s like to work at companies from real professionals
  • Get candid advice from people in your field in a safe space
  • Chat and network with other professionals in your field
Sign up in seconds to unlock all discussions on Fishbowl.

Already a user?
Login here

Share

Embed this post

Copy and paste embed code on your site

Preview

Download the
Fishbowl app

See what’s happening in your industry
from the palm of your hand.

A phone with Fishbowl app

Scan your QR code to download
Fishbowl app on your mobile

Download app

Sign up for free to view this conversation on Fishbowl

By continuing you agree to Terms of Use and Privacy Policy

Already have an account? Log in

Sign up for free to continue using Fishbowl

By continuing you agree to Terms of Use(New) and Privacy Policy(New)
Messaging rates may apply

Already have an account? Log in

For account settings, visit Fishbowl on Desktop Browser or

General

Legal