Need a gut check here. We are buying a house in Utah for $600-700k which would be a $4,000-4,750/mo with 10% down.
We make $250k gross plus ~$30k in bonus/equity. Max 401k, IRA, and HSA. Income will keep going up (TBD how significantly) for one of us. No other debts, cars don’t need replacing soon, but we are looking to have our first kid within 12-18mo.
Are we crazy or not? Got screwed by not buying 2-3 years ago and here we are paying double for a worse house in a worse location. Thoughts?

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I think if you plotted a graph starting today and going for the next 60 years, today is the cheapest houses will be on that graph

Even if rates go up and prices go down, the total cost of the loan will still be higher

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Interesting and valuable take, thanks

One thing I learned after not buying in 2018/2019 was that supply shortages for new construction are real and with inflation continuing, dollar is weaker each year. Land and houses therefore are a higher amount.

Labor and construction cost prices are not coming down. Lower inflation means price changes slowdown, but doesn’t mean prices are coming down.

Perhaps you can get a better deal waiting but if you can find something you can afford, may as well jump. Late October onwards will be a better time due to seasonality and perhaps signs of rate cuts.


Anyone that got in before 2019 is truly lucky.

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We were in a similar situation just a few weeks ago. We put an offer on a house and it was accepted, and we were super excited to move in. A few days after our offer was accepted though, we realized that it just doesn’t make sense to buy at this time and ended up backing out of our offer. Felt better about waiting so that’s what we are doing.

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Our reasoning was this: yes we can afford the mortgage payment each month, but we would not be able to afford the risk if the market is not in a good place in 3-4 years when we need to sell. If you are planning to stay in the house for 5+ years then it doesn’t matter much if you go underwater for a short period of time.

I don’t know about anyone else but I wouldn’t be making such a purchase at the moment .. recession looming .. Job cuts everywhere .., I would hold on to my Cash for now !

America is seeing the lowest job cuts in 22 years. I’m curious where you are getting your data?

Comments like yours are the problem. Everyone has been giving Op advice like this and he’s missed out on purchasing during a booming economy

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On your current income your totally fine but what are your plans for childcare? Will both of you continue to work?

Also what area is this that you consider to be worse? I’m in Utah county and prices haven’t really moved in a year.

@pwc1 yes, see you there!

@SM1 just ran some calcs. Retirement accounts including HSA is $67k which is 27% of salaries and OT of $250k. That plus health insurance we pay $57,200 before we get taxes (all but IRA). We pay $48k in taxes or 19%. Shit seems low, if we weren’t to do HSA or 401k we would be paying $14k more in taxes, heavily reducing what our take home pay would be by over $1k/mo.

Well, you all can definitely afford it. People are talking about a recession looming..they’ve been saying that for over 2 years now. Prices aren’t going to just drop because there’s still too much demand - we have a housing shortage. You can always refinance in the future if you’re unhappy with current rates. You all have no other debt so I don’t see an issue with this being the debt, it’s a house, everybody needs one. It’s either that or continue renting.

I’ll be honest I just don’t really see that happening. I’ve been telling people to buy for years now even prior to the pandemic. Now I have friends that are literally priced out of buying because they can’t afford these higher rates and high prices. Values just aren’t going to fall over night to where you would have to be in danger of not being able to refinance. You’re putting 10 percent down..that’s not just going to wipe out overnight. Each market is different, though and some are stronger than others. I’m in Houston and houses don’t stay on the market long despite high rates and prices. We’ve purchased 6 properties since 2019 and the latest being last month. I build new construction properties to rent out long term so I know where labor/lumber/etc prices fall, I’m not the average consumer and I’m fine with the current market because it’s still very profitable for us. At the end of the day though everybody’s different so just go with your true instinct.

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