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What's more important in selling an idea?
Kick-Off Meeting Essentials

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I would argue a slightly different approach in that this is not your problem to own. I would hold them accountable for sure, and make sure you address it in the retro. Make sure there are actionable takeaways from the retro for the team to address, and continue to bring it up until it is addressed. Your scrum master should also be monitoring your velocity and having these discussions with the team.
Just my perspective, as I don't know your company culture, but your role as a PM/PO is not to manage the team. Once you start playing that role, the team can lose some empowerment and accountability for their work. I would leverage your scrum master and team lead to help you if the retros are not effective.
I’m here for the comments/advice!
I like to sit in during the daily scrum and see progress on a feature. Also, I’m there to answer any questions or address blockers. In addition, if your team is consistently missing deadlines, that may be an indicator that they’re taking on too many story points. Ask your project manager to calculate sprint velocity and possibly scale back for future iterations
My experience, I usually start with me - Am I setting a realistic expectation for what that team can achieve in 1 sprint. This has to be based on evidence of how much they’ve been able to accomplish previously. If there are no issues there, then I set the next sprint with a lower goal, if there’s still no improvement, an actual manager (mine or theirs) or whoever is in charge of them needs to step up so I go to them with my case plus evidence.
I’m not including talking to them about it cos I’m assuming that’s been done and that’s why you know there isn’t really a good enough reason.
Bowl Leader
I usually take the historical spilled points and see if there is a pattern. I had a team previously in which there was spill in every sprint. On investigating, it turned out that the spill was always caused by two people. So I focused on working with them- is the stories they pick too much for them or if they are being asked to do other ad-hoc things and then worked on setting that right. One of them just had a lot coming ad-hoc so we worked on a filter system where she was enabled to direct even the top most people to go only through me and the lead.
The other person however was slacking, so we discussed a performance plan and made sure they had simpler stories that could be done, and worked on helping them achieve the goals.
But if there isn't such a pointed issue then I have a set pattern - check if the spill is almost the same points every time, if it is then we should be conscious in our planning to take that much less and I should be mindful of my expectations or the message I put across.
Bowl Leader
How does the team get along on a personal level? Is there a respect issue across the board? Are you open and asking lots of questions from a place of respect? Motivation is the trickiest thing out there, so best of luck, but that’s where I’d start.
Dive into their DILO maybe other folks are coming to them and it’s using up the time dedicated for your team. Capacity planning tool tools
- How much time do you spend with your team? Do you attend stand up meetings regularly? Do you attend retros?
- How does the team respond to questions regarding spill over?
- Does the team trust you and each other?
- Do you have a scrum master? If yes, what feedback or suggestions has he or she offered?
- If this has occurred over multiple sprints with no changes in behavior or productivity, have you discussed this with the team's manager?
I often ask: “what discoveries were made during the sprint that changed the scope of work?” Also, does the team have a tech lead or a team agreement document that is explicit about the way they work and agreements they make with each other and with you?
Thanks for the responses! They have all helped to nail down core team issues before planning.