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One of my clients uses an MMM. Every year it shows a negative ROI.
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Yikes ..... good luck even forecasting that with all of the fluctuations with this year.
Check Avinash Kaushik blog. Also check Neustar and Analytic Partners on MMM. It is complex analysis and yes not great ROI.
I second Avinash. Smart guy.
Having never run a superbowl ad, there's probably some specific nuance, but not knowing that, here's what I'd do:
I'd figure out whether I wanted this to be a success or not. You probably do, but maybe you want the money elsewhere and you want it to fail. Either way.
Next I'd contact all the top measurement vendors and get educated on measuring this.
Then I'd write up the proposal and get everyone bought in on the measurement plan. The plan would use metrics where it will fail if that's what I want to steer, or succeed if I want it to go the other way. I'd already be damned sure of about what the results of that measurement plan will be.
I'd then run it, read out, and steer next steps to whatever I had wanted from the outset.
See the thing here is that you can't really measure the full influence of that ad, just little bits and pieces within it. You can't even really model it because you do one per year at most, so the training and testing alone wouldn't even occur on any time scale you'd be around for. So you can kinda do whatever you want here as long as you get that unanimous buy in, on paper, on measurement.
I've run MMMs for a few Superbowl initiatives. They're all awful, < $1 ROI. But you're not doing it for the short term sales lift.... you're doing it for awareness.