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Enthusiast
Cost of money is increasing (interest rates), and cost everything else is increasing = people will have less to spend on housing = lower demand at high prices = housing prices go down
Recession forces people to sell. Housing prices are going down one way or another.
Most price spikes since COVID have mean reverted, or are in the process (because the market is slower to respond)
Fastest to respond = stock market (see ARKK lol)
Slowest to repsond = housing (sales are already down, to be continued)
Oil is inverse to the broader market but it has also mean reverted
Subject Expert
I think a lot of people are hoping the housing market will crash so that they can get a house for a “good price”. Unfortunately, the reason why the housing market has soared the last 18 months is because of the pent up demand and gross undersupply of new housing over the last 10 years, and those who have money and/or liquidable assets are overpaying for houses they want because of this differential between supply and demand, which is what is leading to the increased pricing (especially for move-in ready homes).
I think prices may start to cool a bit with increasing rates, but I don’t expect a 20% or 30% correction anytime soon.
Enthusiast
Supply is increasing as well. Depending on where you are, lots of building projects nearing completion right as interest rates are going up
Subject Expert
Foreclosures tend to happen when you owe more than your home is worth. If you have equity, you could sell your house and payoff the loan free and clear.
A lot of mortgage companies with non-paying mortgage owners will just add the unpaid term to the end of the loan if there’s equity as long as the mortgage owner has become re-employed.
Lots of homes in my area (SW) are dropping prices. Home near me started 2 weeks ago asking $600k now it’s dropped $570k in just 2 weeks. So the market is definitely cooling but who knows how much
Still hasn’t sold. Down to $560k now
With RTO and school being in class again, good locations will still be resilient no matter what. Higher interest rates will make a lot of buyers not qualify, but those would've been the "useless" buyers that would have lost the bids on existing inventory anyway. You only need one winner on top to sell.
There's also this assumption that mortgage rates will keep flying up, but eventually these underwriters will need to take less margin to stay afloat and get applications once the slowdown kicks in and the only way to do that is to have competitive rates. The big banks hate underwriting; they just want to buy up mortgages in bulk to add it to fixed REITs from these smaller brokers.
Some markets will correct heavily, some will slow and normalize, but people dreaming of a 2008 credit default crisis might find themselves still waiting imo.
Luxury housing market bubble will burst and class A real estate with take a big hit, but “normal” housing market will cool a bit. I don’t see that crashing though. A big driver was people shifting their priorities and companies are being forced to cave on WFH
I’ve been thinking the same thing. Deciding if I should invest into another property now or wait for a downturn. I just don’t see it being as significant as our most recent downturn for the reasons you stated above. So it doesn’t seem worth waiting for that reason alone.
F
I haven’t heard anyone think the market is going to **soar** at this point. I don’t think we are going to see a dramatic drop in home values, but perhaps more of a cooling on increasing prices
Mentor
Zillow thinks we are due for a 14% pop
Most of the predictions from sales and consultants (I work for a UK housing association) seem to be along the lines of the market cooling towards the end of next year. Our sales figures are presently through the roof, unsustainably so. I've got it on good authority that this is the case at regular developers as well.