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CD1 is right. A recession is coming and the money people know it.
Beyond that, the industry never really recovered from the last one. Budgets never really came back, every one thinks you can cut a broadcast commercial on an iPhone (thanks a lot TBWA!), create a campaign on a laptop (thanks a lot Adobe!), and their nephew can shoot anything they need (thanks a lot canon and nikon!).
The good news is that if you know it's all coming then you can plan. Try to land a stable (if not totally inspiring) gig. Use the down time to learn a lot and experiment all over the place. When the money comes back you'll be leveled up to take full advantage.
All of it. We're on the cusp of a recession, marketing is the first thing to get cut.
@starcom1 it usually starts with senior management. If there's a big shakeup, and a lot of senior (C-Suite,VPs, Directors) people leave, something is happening at the highest level. Then, when the strongest/most senior people at the tactical day to day level (people who have been with the company 3+ years and should be management, but are not) start to leave. Then for everyone else, frozen salaries/promotions for more than one year in a row. Also, any time there is a major client loss, or perceived unnecessary spending is frozen (training, certifications, conferences). There are opportunities to advance during these times for those willing to stick it out, but it takes a long time to save a sinking ship and it is not without enormous sacrifices.
OP, if you're a junior I'm assuming you haven't been in this industry for long, but unfortunately — and differently from our friends in other careers, or our parents — that's the way our industry works. It's fickle. I was at Leo Burnett when they won Sprint and they had to hire 110 people in a month, a year later when they lost that same account they laid off 40. But that's just one example; any agency that wins a big account needs to staff up quickly, but the sad reality is that the agency that lost that same account likely won't be able to afford keeping the people that used to work on it. You'll see it a lot in the coming years, and inevitably there's a good chance you'll be a part of one (or two) of those scenarios. It's not the end of the world, but that's what we chose to do.
Layoffs are just part of the biz. Every company I've worked at since 2007 has had multiple rounds of layoffs. After 2-3, you start to recognize the signs earlier and get out ahead of it.
If a recession is coming for real, and it probably is, try to land in a commodity account. Fast food, grocery store, CPG (not soda, but household goods, etc). They usually advertise MORE during a recession as consumers become more price conscious
Has ZERO to do with any impending recession - which there is NOT one looming. It's all about cost and response. Clients for the last 10 years have been cutting fees and budgets. Content is still content, but the evolution of the digital age for some reason made clients think they should pay less. Then add social media to the mix and we as agency peeps have to respond even faster. It's crazy. Now agencies have put in-house agency production capabilities front and center to deal with this quick response time, but also to make up for lost revenue in fees. The traditional agency model is dead. You have to think of our clients now as an octopus - the Agency is just 1 of 8 arms in their advertising and marketing plan. The traditional agency is slower, and carries far too much overhead to keep going as they are. Be smart, be nimble and keep changing to meet the times. Now I must go moisturize my thumbs.
Yes
Clients want more for less. Fewer dollars spread over a wide mix. Agencies, especially traditional ones, have not kept up. Every summer agencies look at their forecasts and if there's a hug gap to fill between projections and revenue coming in, positions are eliminated.
Focus on the work and be open to change.
Change is the only constant. Stay nimble Jr.
@SPM1 what would you say are some of the signs?
Do you find that it's worse/ more frequent in creative vs media or it's about the same?
@starcom1, it depends on where the gaps are. I was part of a round of layoffs at a Publicis-owned agency. There is not a lot of planning or thought that goes into it when it happens. There's a financial gap, usually at the end of one quarter and the start of another, and on the morning it happens, the holding company says X number of people need to be laid off by end of day that day. Office management pulls some kind of list of who is assigned to what work, and who looks available in coming weeks, makes sure there's some semblance of people remaining to do the work (with little regard to whether or not they have the bandwidth or skill set). Doesn't really matter if it's creative, media, or any other department. If you're not billable, you're most likely to be cut.
Because they've all over invested in digital. And it simply doesn't bring in the money
@starcom layoffs are a lot less common in our companies than some of the creative shops. Starcom has lost some big accounts over the years with little impact.
But we also all signed up for it, oops 🙊
@clientservicesmanager1 yes to what?
Normal
Is the world of advertising and it's a rude mother fucker that can flip at any time. Hard business.
The upside of all that volatility is the freedom to move on to other agencies, take breaks and come back and other behaviors that other industries might penalize you for. It's a two way street. Just stay flexible and save for a rainy day because you know that it's likely you will get laid off at some point through no direct fault of your own. Don't take it personally. Take it as an opportunity to find your next cool gig.