Who has better exit ops from audit? First year senior or first year manager? Defining “better” as the larger potential jump in total compensation

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Think it depends. Manager might give you a bigger jump, but there will be more opportunities at the senior level.

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Of course the jump will be higher for a manager but that means working 2-3 more years public accounting and giving up on additional money for the extra 2-3 years. So don't focus only on a one year percent increase

Sr analyst in Bay area should be like 125

Leaving as a manager will get you closer to controller and eventually C-suite jobs. If you aren't interested in doing that then leaving as a senior works just fine.

In all cases, it's important that whatever jump you make fits in with your long-term career plan. This assumes you have a long-term career plan.

People who leave at senior tend to stay at senior.

Yes, if you’re really good, are willing to jump, or find an employer with a structured promotion path you can do it in similar time. Most people are average, not as willing to move after they leave public, and industry jobs are usually a lot less automatic on promotions.

The person who has been looking since day 1 and has been patiently watching and waiting for the right opportunity

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