Would you rather have a more senior position at a smaller firm or a junior position at a bigger firm

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I’d rather have more money

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I think to maximize experience and comp, you want to cut your teeth at a bigger firm then make bigger impacts in smaller companies once you’re more senior

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Easy: which one pays me more now? Here's a pro-tip for you: money now is worth more than money later. Unless the compensation model is more complex and you have heavy variable comp like RSUs that might appreciate. If it's all salary/bonus, money now > money later.

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I guess I care more about not capping my ceiling than I do about guaranteeing a floor.

I think at 100k vs 200k you’re generally talking about radically different tier of jobs, and it’s not a very realistic exercise. I’m thinking something like, do I take a 350k job or a job that pays 225K now, with 80% chance of making 350k in 2 years (and 80% chance of making 450k 2 years after that, and so on) with an ultimate upside of 7 figure comp but a lot of hurdles to get there.

Whereas the 350k job, let’s say it’s a head of analytics or a MLE job at bigtech. I’m less familiar with the odds there but I understand L5 is a considered a terminal level and it’s pretty hard to get more TC after the 500k mark. Here, I still have the risk of job security shenanigans, except I’m going to be playing in the 500k range with a much harder path to get to 7 figures.

Considering all that, I’d rather take the 225k path knowing that even if I do get laid off I can still land a pretty good exit. The difference between that and making 350k now is relatively minor to me compared the difference between having a real shot at cracking 7 figure comp in 10 years vs almost definitely not.

Senior at smaller firm. Bigger firms have less challenging problems but more volume of work

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