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Rising Star
You’re being offered the associate manager position right now (with the new comp). The promotion in July could never end up happening, no matter how confident you are that you’ll get it. I would take the offer.
It depends what you’re looking for. If the money attracts you go with the offer because I agree that it’s not 100% sure the promotion will happen. If you love your company right now and feel good with them: stay!
Mainly listen to your gut, that guy will give you the answer!