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If the stock market were to tank, incl. all these ridiculous tech valuations, how do you guys think compensation packages will move in competitive fields such as IBD, consulting, big tech? Based on current environments, I’ve two hypotheses: 1. Comp packages in competitive fields will continue strongly due to: a. less supply of top talent (great resignation), b. less willingness to work demanding jobs (push for wlb), and c. Rising living costs - inflation 2. Comp packages will get readjusted…

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Not really. None of the big tech companies are down much. But let’s say tech crashes by 50% which is highly unlikely but let’s assume so. That just means a senior SWE comp package which was 400K is now 300K at worst. Still easily out paying other industries including consulting. And you completely ignore how much end of year refreshers will boost your comp if the stock does crash and later rallies. A good example is Snapchat. People who joined or got refreshers at its absolute low of $5 within a couple of years saw their stocks worth almost 20X when it went to $80 (mid 2019-mid 2021). If you were given a 50K refresher package, that alone meant $1MM worth at its peak not even counting any of the other stock grants you may have been holding to

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Maybe to add onto what Deloitte said above, a new hires comp isn’t impacted by a stock market downturn (assuming no further declines) because the equity value is set on the date you walk in (or some similar formula). So for example, when I was offered my new comp (not PwC), i was offered $X cash and $Y in equity. The equity was determined based on the valuation closest to my hire date. Therefore, so long as my company’s stock doesn’t drop anymore since the day I joined, my total comp is unchanged. If their stock drops after my start date, that’s where I lose value in $Y (and a refresher becomes helpful).

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The “great resignation” isn’t really a thing if you check the data. It’s mostly a sensational narrative pushed by the media.

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Continued 2. Comp will get readjusted across industries due to: a. Less pressure from big tech TC (similar equity grants will net less value) and b. Fear of recession/ corporate greed causing companies to bootstrap Back of the napkin analysis so looking for feedback on what I might’ve missed!

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New posts and

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