If you take a new mortgage, receive ~$3-4K lender credit with higher interest rate (opposite of paying points), and refinance in a year, are there any implications? Would you need to repay any of the initial lender credit due to the mortgage repayment?

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Depends, in the US there are no prepayment penalties on primary residences (house you live in). It’s very simple to see what’s the best deal. Take the amount of points in dollars and divide that by the monthly savings compared to the or rate (rate for no points). This gives you the number of months until the points are paid off. If you refinance before that, it’s not worth it. If you’re thinking about taking a credit, it works the other way. The number of months is the max time you have to refinance before the higher rate becomes the worse option.

smart

Sounds like you're describing a prepayment penalty which became uncommon after the housing crisis. Read the terms of the loan to determine your specific situation.

... but 1. It sounds like you're betting on lower rates, and 2. When you refi, there are closing costs again which makes your bet even more risky.

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