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Enthusiast
No refund or owing a little is perfect! Means you didn't give the government a free loan from your earnings by overwitholding.
Chief
There is no rule of thumb. It depends entirely on how much you had withheld from your pay vs. how much tax you owe. That’s really all there is to it.
You can use the IRS Withholding Calculator to better estimate next year.
P.S. - the term you were looking for is “refund.” The return is the forms you file.
Depends on what you have withheld
Standard deduction